Sheffield Wednesday vs Stockport County
Saturday 19 Sep, 14:00 UTC · Hillsborough Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Sheffield Wednesday attacking output+21
1.81 xG and 1.81 goals per match over the last 11.
- Stockport County defensive record-23
0.97 xG and 0.97 goals conceded per match.
- Sheffield Wednesday home record+16
11.3 scored / 9.1 conceded across 7 home matches.
- Stockport County away record-21
17.5 scored / 12.5 conceded across 12 away matches.
- Squad availability+2
Sheffield Wednesday: Louie Barry (out) · Stockport County: Ryan Rydel (out), Brad Hills (out)
- Squad depth+0
Sheffield Wednesday: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/11DEF/7MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Stockport County: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/7MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-8
Sheffield Wednesday: 11 in (3 on loan), 17 out including 0 regulars — Jaden Heskey from Manchester City U21, Reece James from Rotherham United, Ashley Maynard-Brewer to Gillingham · Stockport County: 10 in (2 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Arttu Hoskonen to TBC, Mikael Mandron from St. Mirren, Jayden Fevrier to Blackburn Rovers
- Sheffield Wednesday last 11 played+36
W W W L L — 1.93 scored / 1.21 conceded per match, 2.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Stockport County last 2 played-100
W D — 3.31 scored / 0.00 conceded per match, 2.66 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 37% · form 35% · goal model 39% · results history 16% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+2
Goal-expectancy model: Sheffield Wednesday 1.62 xG, Stockport County 1.56 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Sheffield Wednesday | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1606 | 1646 |
| Record | 6W 1D 4L | 15W 9D 4L |
| Goals for / against | 19.86227436749448 / 13.89769840655231 | 49.844410334766174 / 27.087902661959742 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 46% | 55% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 7 matches, 11.304569852488338–9.129665402915531 | 12 matches, 17.532838253172375–12.526195942797072 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 71.9%33.6% / 26.1% / 40.3%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Louie Barry Attackerout
- Ryan Rydel Defenderout
- Brad Hills Defenderout
Availability impact: 1.7% home attack, 2.8% away attack.