Angers SCO vs Troyes
Saturday 19 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Stade Raymond Kopa
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Angers SCO attacking output-36
0.64 xG and 0.64 goals per match over the last 15.
- Troyes defensive record+50
2.38 xG and 2.38 goals conceded per match.
- Angers SCO home record-70
4.8 scored / 16.1 conceded across 8 home matches.
- Troyes away record-50
2.0 scored / 1.0 conceded across 1 away matches.
- Squad availability-1
Angers SCO: Louis Mouton (out), Haris Belkebla (out), Lilian Raolisoa (out) · Troyes: Paolo Gozzi (out), Ismaël Boura (out), Yvann Titi (out)
- Squad depth-2
Angers SCO: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/6DEF/3MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Troyes: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/5DEF/7MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-1
Angers SCO: 6 in (1 on loan), 11 out including 0 regulars — Jacques Ekomié to Wrexham, Joseph Kalulu from Pau, Marius Courcoul to La Louvière · Troyes: 8 in (1 on loan), 6 out including 0 regulars — Elijah Odede to Lommel SK, Mounaïm El Idrissy to Raja Casablanca, Timothé Nkada from Standard Liège
- Angers SCO last 5 played-32
L L D W W — 0.77 scored / 1.41 conceded per match, 0.59 points per game (recency weighted).
- Troyes last 3 played+53
L W D — 1.36 scored / 2.42 conceded per match, 1.32 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 24% · form 20% · goal model 32% · results history 32% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-6
Goal-expectancy model: Angers SCO 1.32 xG, Troyes 1.49 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Angers SCO | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1218 | 1404 |
| Record | 1W 3D 11L | 1W 1D 1L |
| Goals for / against | 9.533564517393406 / 35.573076422096875 | 4.0417588335132715 / 7.129692956185992 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 43% | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 8 matches, 4.830921775681208–16.068190275341582 | 1 matches, 2–1 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 60.6%30.1% / 27.1% / 42.8%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Louis Mouton Midfielderout
- Haris Belkebla Midfielderout
- Lilian Raolisoa Defenderout
- Paolo Gozzi Defenderout
- Ismaël Boura Defenderout
- Yvann Titi Defenderout
Availability impact: 4.8% home attack, 4.2% away attack.