Paris vs Strasbourg
Saturday 19 Sep, 15:15 UTC · Stade Jean Bouin
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Paris attacking output+23
1.51 xG and 1.51 goals per match over the last 37.
- Strasbourg defensive record+3
1.34 xG and 1.34 goals conceded per match.
- Paris home record+24
32.9 scored / 24.3 conceded across 18 home matches.
- Strasbourg away record-13
14.2 scored / 12.1 conceded across 8 away matches.
- Squad availability+3
Paris: Jonathan Ikoné (out), Nhoa Sangui (out), Emmanuel Mbemba (out) · Strasbourg: Dário Essugo (out), Joaquín Panichelli (out), Jeyland Mitchell (out), Omari Kellyman (out)
- Squad depth-2
Paris: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/7DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Strasbourg: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/6DEF/6MID/11FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+31
Paris: 6 in (0 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — El Hadary Raheriniaina to Nancy, Tuomas Ollila to Guingamp, Alimami Gory to Abha · Strasbourg: 16 in (0 on loan), 26 out including 0 regulars — Abakar Sylla to Gaziantep F.K., Andrew Omobamidele to Anderlecht, Conrad Harder from RB Leipzig
- Paris last 12 played+58
W W D W L — 2.03 scored / 0.88 conceded per match, 2.09 points per game (recency weighted).
- Strasbourg last 6 played-98
W W D D D — 3.40 scored / 1.44 conceded per match, 2.37 points per game (recency weighted).
- Head-to-head-28
2 previous meetings: Paris 0W 1D 1L, 2-3 on aggregate (-0.50 goal difference per meeting), 2.50 goals per match.
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 30% · form 28% · goal model 35% · results history 32% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-5
Goal-expectancy model: Paris 1.69 xG, Strasbourg 1.85 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Paris | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1539 | 1655 |
| Record | 15W 12D 10L | 12W 3D 4L |
| Goals for / against | 55.6948907227584 / 47.4762415576785 | 40.44659604046718 / 25.524266580754713 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 51% | 55% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 18 matches, 32.920178025525566–24.31922023561679 | 8 matches, 14.19957837306755–12.079208256492997 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 79.4%32.9% / 25.5% / 41.6%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Jonathan Ikoné Attackerout
- Nhoa Sangui Defenderout
- Emmanuel Mbemba Defenderout
- Dário Essugo Midfielderout
- Joaquín Panichelli Attackerout
- Jeyland Mitchell Defenderout
- Omari Kellyman Midfielderout
Availability impact: 4.5% home attack, 6.2% away attack.