Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg
Saturday 19 Sep, 13:30 UTC · Deutsche Bank Park
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Eintracht Frankfurt attacking output+30
1.92 xG and 1.92 goals per match over the last 22.
- SC Freiburg defensive record-7
1.34 xG and 1.34 goals conceded per match.
- Eintracht Frankfurt home record+3
21.4 scored / 20.8 conceded across 10 home matches.
- SC Freiburg away record-8
18.9 scored / 17.0 conceded across 12 away matches.
- Squad availability-5
Eintracht Frankfurt: Noël Aséko (out), Nnamdi Collins (out), Timothy Chandler (out), Jessic Ngankam (out), Ritsu Doan (out), Ansgar Knauff (out) · SC Freiburg: Patrick Osterhage (out), Berkay Yilmaz (out), Florent Muslija (out), Cyriaque Irié (out)
- Squad depthneutral
Eintracht Frankfurt: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/6DEF/6MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · SC Freiburg: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/10DEF/4MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+9
Eintracht Frankfurt: 5 in (0 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Niels Nkounkou to Nice, Elye Wahi to Nice, Michy Batshuayi to Abha · SC Freiburg: 7 in (0 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Louey Ben Farhat from Karlsruher SC, Noah Atubolu to Eintracht Frankfurt, Karl Steinmann to Hannover 96
- Eintracht Frankfurt last 4 played-65
L D L D — 1.72 scored / 3.03 conceded per match, 0.44 points per game (recency weighted).
- SC Freiburg last 7 played-82
W W W L W — 2.55 scored / 0.90 conceded per match, 2.53 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 24% · form 18% · goal model 26% · results history 4% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-23
Goal-expectancy model: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.55 xG, SC Freiburg 2.25 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1442 | 1635 |
| Record | 5W 8D 9L | 15W 4D 5L |
| Goals for / against | 42.2292184750481 / 46.88959645931735 | 43.72985116283229 / 30.760698483963218 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 53% | 48% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 10 matches, 21.430299505459285–20.808407193072195 | 12 matches, 18.864761078047998–17.009228137242633 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%21.9% / 22.1% / 56.1%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Noël Aséko Midfielderout
- Nnamdi Collins Defenderout
- Timothy Chandler Defenderout
- Jessic Ngankam Attackerout
- Ritsu Doan Attackerout
- Ansgar Knauff Attackerout
- Patrick Osterhage Midfielderout
- Berkay Yilmaz Defenderout
- Florent Muslija Attackerout
- Cyriaque Irié Attackerout
Availability impact: 9.3% home attack, 6.3% away attack.