Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
Saturday 12 Sep, 18:00 UTC · Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Fortuna Sittard attacking output+9
1.20 xG and 1.20 goals per match over the last 14.
- Ajax defensive record+10
1.35 xG and 1.35 goals conceded per match.
- Fortuna Sittard home record-11
11.4 scored / 13.3 conceded across 9 home matches.
- Ajax away record-43
29.1 scored / 18.0 conceded across 13 away matches.
- Squad availability-5
Fortuna Sittard: Kristoffer Peterson (out), Siebe Wylin (out), Sven Simons (out), Ole Romeny (out), Edouard Michut (out), Iván Márquez (out), Lequincio Zeefuik (out) · Ajax: Maher Carrizo (out), Aaron Bouwman (out), Daley Blind (out), Steven Berghuis (out), Simon Adingra (out), Viktor Tsygankov (out), Amourricho van Axel Dongen (out)
- Squad depth-0
Fortuna Sittard: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/6DEF/6MID/1FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Ajax: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/7MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+18
Fortuna Sittard: 11 in (2 on loan), 17 out including 0 regulars — Rodrigo Guth from Talleres Córdoba, Shawn Adewoye to Lommel SK, Hasip Korkmazyürek to Isparta Davrazspor · Ajax: 18 in (3 on loan), 21 out including 0 regulars — Amourricho van Axel Dongen to TBC, Thilo Kehrer from Monaco, Simon Adingra from Sunderland
- Match conditionsneutral
overcast clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Jeroen Manschotneutral
4.0 yellows and 0.13 reds per match across 8 tracked appointments.
- Fortuna Sittard last 5 played+42
W W L W W — 2.66 scored / 1.82 conceded per match, 2.57 points per game (recency weighted).
- Ajax last 8 played-47
L W W L W — 2.89 scored / 1.94 conceded per match, 1.84 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 17% · form 13% · goal model 22% · results history 59% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-31
Goal-expectancy model: Fortuna Sittard 1.34 xG, Ajax 2.26 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1405 | 1680 |
| Record | 3W 3D 7L | 12W 5D 3L |
| Goals for / against | 16.77128647855467 / 23.925748807171985 | 47.09527312157745 / 27.094571627771824 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 44% | 61% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 11.380958773731564–13.304943278092017 | 13 matches, 29.106528761639503–18.02578966066641 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 83.8%27.8% / 21.6% / 50.6%
- T-3dcompleteness 83.8%27.8% / 21.6% / 50.6%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Kristoffer Peterson Attackerout
- Siebe Wylin Defenderout
- Sven Simons Midfielderout
- Ole Romeny Attackerout
- Edouard Michut Midfielderout
- Iván Márquez Defenderout
- Lequincio Zeefuik Attackerout
- Maher Carrizo Attackerout
- Aaron Bouwman Defenderout
- Daley Blind Defenderout
- Steven Berghuis Attackerout
- Simon Adingra Attackerout
- Viktor Tsygankov Attackerout
- Amourricho van Axel Dongen Attackerout
Availability impact: 14.3% home attack, 10.9% away attack.