Juventus vs Atalanta
Sunday 20 Sep, 16:00 UTC · Juventus Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Juventus attacking output+11
1.50 xG and 1.50 goals per match over the last 20.
- Atalanta defensive record-29
0.82 xG and 0.82 goals conceded per match.
- Juventus home record+70
20.0 scored / 4.7 conceded across 11 home matches.
- Atalanta away record-41
16.4 scored / 8.2 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability-5
Juventus: Pape Matar Sarr (out), Weston McKennie (out), Kenan Yıldız (out), Juan Cabal (out), Andrea Cambiaso (out), Federico Gatti (out), Jeff Ekhator (out) · Atalanta: Kamaldeen Sulemana (out), Charles De Ketelaere (out), Isak Hien (out), Giorgio Scalvini (out), Thomas Kristensen (out)
- Squad depth+1
Juventus: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/6DEF/5MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Atalanta: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/2DEF/11MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-2
Juventus: 7 in (0 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Jonathan David to Atlético de Madrid, Arthur Melo to Santos, Fabio Miretti to Beşiktaş · Atalanta: 5 in (1 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Ibrahim Sulemana to Sassuolo, Thomas Pompei from Cosenza, Mitchel Bakker to TBC
- Juventus last 6 played+54
D W W W W — 1.43 scored / 0.35 conceded per match, 2.39 points per game (recency weighted).
- Atalanta last 6 played-22
L W W W L — 1.20 scored / 0.77 conceded per match, 2.08 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 53% · form 55% · goal model 51% · results history 56% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+21
Goal-expectancy model: Juventus 1.59 xG, Atalanta 0.97 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Juventus | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1670 | 1586 |
| Record | 11W 8D 2L | 10W 4D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 30.052647520862642 / 9.333861228519833 | 27.091107649058493 / 16.393149560118193 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 54% | 56% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 11 matches, 19.977185207159206–4.686954162984318 | 10 matches, 16.381899260492585–8.187925824320105 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 76.3%50.3% / 25.8% / 23.8%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Pape Matar Sarr Midfielderout
- Weston McKennie Midfielderout
- Kenan Yıldız Attackerout
- Juan Cabal Defenderout
- Andrea Cambiaso Defenderout
- Federico Gatti Defenderout
- Jeff Ekhator Attackerout
- Kamaldeen Sulemana Attackerout
- Charles De Ketelaere Midfielderout
- Isak Hien Defenderout
- Giorgio Scalvini Defenderout
- Thomas Kristensen Defenderout
Availability impact: 10.4% home attack, 7.4% away attack.