Real Betis vs Getafe
Thursday 17 Sep, 17:00 UTC · Estadio Benito Villamarín
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Real Betis attacking output+28
1.78 xG and 1.78 goals per match over the last 25.
- Getafe defensive record-3
1.36 xG and 1.36 goals conceded per match.
- Real Betis home record+62
28.5 scored / 12.4 conceded across 13 home matches.
- Getafe away record+25
8.0 scored / 12.6 conceded across 9 away matches.
- Squad availability-5
Real Betis: Troy Parrott (out), Diego Conde (out), Gonzalo Petit (out) · Getafe: Christantus Uche (out)
- Squad depth-2
Real Betis: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 1GK/8DEF/8MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Getafe: 34 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/11DEF/7MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-9
Real Betis: 11 in (1 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Dani Ceballos from Real Madrid, Pablo García to Racing Santander, Gonzalo Petit to Cádiz · Getafe: 7 in (1 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Yvan Neyou to Volos NFC, Javi Muñoz to Almería, Álex Sancris to Leganés
- Real Betis last 7 played+7
W W L W W — 1.82 scored / 1.68 conceded per match, 2.29 points per game (recency weighted).
- Getafe last 4 played+13
D L L W — 0.75 scored / 1.01 conceded per match, 0.98 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 62% · form 63% · goal model 62% · results history 72% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+36
Goal-expectancy model: Real Betis 2.01 xG, Getafe 0.92 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Real Betis | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1576 | 1409 |
| Record | 10W 9D 6L | 5W 3D 10L |
| Goals for / against | 44.5112355873592 / 32.07548234235529 | 15.18987373375541 / 24.51073227081317 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 44% | 41% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 13 matches, 28.452938528363056–12.413913062003967 | 9 matches, 8.035233308827387–12.570460008792436 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%60.1% / 22.6% / 17.3%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Troy Parrott Attackerout
- Diego Conde Goalkeeperout
- Gonzalo Petit Attackerout
- Christantus Uche Attackerout
Availability impact: 5.1% home attack, 1.7% away attack.