Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05

• Borussia Mönchengladbach attacking output+11

  1.33 xG and 1.33 goals per match over the last 17.

• FSV Mainz 05 defensive record+2

  1.52 xG and 1.52 goals conceded per match.

• Borussia Mönchengladbach home record+21

  13.7 scored / 10.8 conceded across 7 home matches.

• FSV Mainz 05 away record+44

  12.7 scored / 22.3 conceded across 11 away matches.

• Squad availability-6

  Borussia Mönchengladbach: Enzo Leopold (out), Tim Kleindienst  (out), Tomas Cvancara  (out), Zento Uno (out), Fabio Chiarodia  (out), Jens Castrop  (out), Lukas Ullrich (out), Kevin Diks (out), Yukhym Konoplya  (out), Daiki Hashioka (out) · FSV Mainz 05: Robin Zentner (out), Silvan Widmer (out), Silas  (out), Dominik Kohr (out), Paul Nebel (out), Eric Martel (out), Benedict Hollerbach (out)

• Squad depth+0

  Borussia Mönchengladbach: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/4DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · FSV Mainz 05: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/8MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

• Recent transfer activity-19

  Borussia Mönchengladbach: 16 in (2 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Tomas Cvancara  to Hradec Králové, Nicolas Kühn from Como, Nathan Ngoumou to Nice · FSV Mainz 05: 7 in (0 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Hyun-seok Hong to FC Midtjylland, Marco Richter to TBC, Andreas Hanche-Olsen to Chicago Fire

• Borussia Mönchengladbach last 4 played-83

  L L D D — 1.28 scored / 2.94 conceded per match, 0.16 points per game (recency weighted).

• FSV Mainz 05 last 6 played-82

  W D D D L — 2.05 scored / 0.40 conceded per match, 1.77 points per game (recency weighted).

• Model agreementneutral

  Elo 32% · form 30% · goal model 35% · results history 6% for the home win.

• Expected attacking output-3

  Goal-expectancy model: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.50 xG, FSV Mainz 05 1.60 xG.

• Borussia Mönchengladbach or FSV Mainz 05 (12)74.3%

  Double chance — any winner, no draw.

  Why this number →
• Draw or FSV Mainz 05 (X2)65.0%

  Double chance — away not beaten.

  Why this number →
• Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw (1X)60.7%

  Double chance — home not beaten.

  Why this number →
• FSV Mainz 05 win39.3%

  Away side wins in 90 minutes.

  Why this number →
• Borussia Mönchengladbach win35.0%

  Home side wins in 90 minutes.

  Why this number →
• Draw25.7%

  Level after 90 minutes.

  Why this number →
• FSV Mainz 05 win to nil17.4%

  Away wins without conceding.

  Why this number →
• Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil15.3%

  Home wins without conceding.

  Why this number →

Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

• T-7dcompleteness 72.5%
  28.8% / 25.2% / 46.0%

Availability impact: 14.6% home attack, 11.0% away attack.