Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Saturday 12 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Real Madrid attacking output+50
2.31 xG and 2.31 goals per match over the last 23.
- Rayo Vallecano defensive record+42
1.51 xG and 1.51 goals conceded per match.
- Real Madrid home record+69
34.2 scored / 14.8 conceded across 14 home matches.
- Rayo Vallecano away record+93
5.6 scored / 24.1 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability-9
Real Madrid: Raúl Asencio (out), Ferland Mendy (out), Thibaut Courtois (out), Rodrygo (out), Éder Militão (out), Endrick (out), Thiago Pitarch (out), Aurélien Tchouaméni (out) · Rayo Vallecano: Adrià Pedrosa (out), Augusto Batalla (out), Marash Kumbulla (out), Raúl de Tomás (out)
- Squad depth-2
Real Madrid: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 1GK/7DEF/6MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Rayo Vallecano: 33 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/6MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+11
Real Madrid: 7 in (1 on loan), 6 out including 0 regulars — Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig, César Palacios to Fulham, Gonzalo García to Fulham · Rayo Vallecano: 8 in (1 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Rayane Belaid from Atlético Madrid II, Miguel Ángel Morro to TBC, Etienne Eto'o to Racing Ferrol
- Match conditionsneutral
sky is clear — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Víctor García Verduraneutral
3.5 yellows and 0.17 reds per match across 6 tracked appointments.
- Real Madrid last 8 played+69
W L W W W — 2.38 scored / 0.99 conceded per match, 2.24 points per game (recency weighted).
- Rayo Vallecano last 4 played+32
W L W W — 2.50 scored / 3.15 conceded per match, 1.76 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 64% · form 66% · goal model 70% · results history 68% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+52
Goal-expectancy model: Real Madrid 2.54 xG, Rayo Vallecano 0.98 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1639 | 1456 |
| Record | 13W 3D 7L | 8W 4D 11L |
| Goals for / against | 53.02956044505998 / 32.3557334023539 | 25.954605205276962 / 34.61579345483055 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 60% | 55% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 14 matches, 34.24086761525838–14.79637416916728 | 10 matches, 5.616481234985232–24.13255459645823 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 80.0%65.0% / 20.0% / 15.0%
- T-3dcompleteness 80.0%65.0% / 20.0% / 15.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Raúl Asencio Defenderout
- Ferland Mendy Defenderout
- Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeperout
- Rodrygo Attackerout
- Éder Militão Defenderout
- Endrick Attackerout
- Thiago Pitarch Midfielderout
- Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielderout
- Adrià Pedrosa Defenderout
- Augusto Batalla Goalkeeperout
- Marash Kumbulla Defenderout
- Raúl de Tomás Attackerout
Availability impact: 12.0% home attack, 6.1% away attack.