← KICK90 board
La LigaT-7dlineups pending

Getafe vs Málaga

Sunday 20 Sep, 12:00 UTC · Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Referee not appointedWeather pending
Most probable outcome
GETAFE WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

50.4%
Getafe
25.9%
Draw
23.8%
Málaga
Home xG
1.51
Away xG
1.07
Likely score
1–1
11.9%
Completeness
64.4%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Getafe attacking output-29

    0.84 xG and 0.84 goals per match over the last 18.

  • Málaga defensive record+18

    1.74 xG and 1.74 goals conceded per match.

  • Getafe home record-27

    7.1 scored / 11.9 conceded across 9 home matches.

  • Málaga away record+100

    0.0 scored / 6.0 conceded across 2 away matches.

  • Squad availability+0

    Getafe: Christantus Uche  (out) · Málaga: Julen Lobete (out)

  • Squad depth+1

    Getafe: 34 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/11DEF/7MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Málaga: 33 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/11DEF/10MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity-8

    Getafe: 6 in (1 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Yvan Neyou to Volos NFC, Javi Muñoz to Almería, Álex Sancris to Leganés · Málaga: 5 in (2 on loan), 8 out including 0 regulars — Pablo Arriaza to Union Estepona, Jens Cajuste from Napoli, Juan Berrocal from Getafe

  • Getafe last 4 played-13

    D L L W — 0.75 scored / 1.01 conceded per match, 0.98 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Málaga last 4 played+74

    D L D L — 0.24 scored / 1.73 conceded per match, 0.51 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 60% · form 62% · goal model 46% · results history 63% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output+15

    Goal-expectancy model: Getafe 1.51 xG, Málaga 1.07 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

    Betting parameters

    Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

    Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

    Team comparison

    Last-10 window

    MetricGetafeMálaga
    Elo14091264
    Record5W 3D 10L0W 2D 2L
    Goals for / against15.18987373375541 / 24.510732270813170.9899967761116482 / 6.968511280908231
    xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
    Possession41%49%
    Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
    Venue split9 matches, 7.113424765652718–11.9107766756659982 matches, 0–6.031285341422688

    AI briefing

    The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

    Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

    Confidence

    Separation · completeness · model agreement

    51Low

    Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

    Probability evolution

    How the answer moved toward kickoff

    • T-7dcompleteness 64.4%
      50.4% / 25.9% / 23.8%

    Squad availability

    Weighted by importance and output

    Getafe
    • Christantus Uche  Attackerout
    Málaga
    • Julen Lobete Attackerout

    Availability impact: 1.7% home attack, 1.7% away attack.