Sevilla vs Valencia
Friday 11 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Sevilla attacking output-21
0.85 xG and 0.85 goals per match over the last 18.
- Valencia defensive record+6
1.25 xG and 1.25 goals conceded per match.
- Sevilla home record-29
8.4 scored / 13.1 conceded across 8 home matches.
- Valencia away record+7
10.2 scored / 11.4 conceded across 9 away matches.
- Squad availability+5
Sevilla: Arouna Sangante (out), Isaac Romero (out), Rubén Vargas (out) · Valencia: Javi Guerra (out), Sergi Canós (out), Justin de Haas (out), Dimitri Foulquier (out), Diego López (out)
- Squad depth-1
Sevilla: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Valencia: 34 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/5MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-18
Sevilla: 13 in (3 on loan), 18 out including 0 regulars — Lucas Stassin from Saint-Étienne, Youssouf Fofana from AC Milan, Félix Correia from LOSC Lille · Valencia: 9 in (2 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Alberto Marí to Honvéd, André Almeida to Racing Santander, Alberto Marí to TBC
- Match conditionsneutral
33°C heat — goal expectancy scaled -4.0%.
- Referee — Mateo Busquets Ferrerneutral
4.6 yellows and 0.30 reds per match across 10 tracked appointments.
- Sevilla last 2 played-49
D L — 1.00 scored / 1.98 conceded per match, 0.51 points per game (recency weighted).
- Valencia last 3 played+100
L L L — 0.33 scored / 3.05 conceded per match, 0.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 28% · form 24% · goal model 34% · results history 67% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-2
Goal-expectancy model: Sevilla 1.23 xG, Valencia 1.30 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Sevilla | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1366 | 1509 |
| Record | 4W 2D 12L | 7W 6D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 15.262795374401925 / 28.02423086130725 | 23.122222672302595 / 22.437729575911863 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 52% | 47% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 8 matches, 8.409968246677272–13.053739901019428 | 9 matches, 10.198399756951268–11.369775164291344 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.8%37.0% / 26.6% / 36.4%
- T-3dcompleteness 68.8%37.0% / 26.6% / 36.4%
- T-24hcompleteness 76.3%37.6% / 26.6% / 35.8%
- T-3hcompleteness 80.0%37.6% / 26.5% / 35.9%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Arouna Sangante Defenderout
- Isaac Romero Attackerout
- Rubén Vargas Attackerout
- Javi Guerra Midfielderout
- Sergi Canós Attackerout
- Justin de Haas Defenderout
- Dimitri Foulquier Defenderout
- Diego López Attackerout
Availability impact: 4.8% home attack, 7.6% away attack.