Como vs Parma
Monday 14 Sep, 16:30 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Como attacking output+42
1.95 xG and 1.95 goals per match over the last 19.
- Parma defensive record-37
0.69 xG and 0.69 goals conceded per match.
- Como home record+31
17.9 scored / 12.3 conceded across 9 home matches.
- Parma away record-16
6.2 scored / 3.6 conceded across 8 away matches.
- Squad availability-7
Como: Willy Kambwala (out), Edoardo Goldaniga (out), Mauro Vigorito (out), Jayden Addai (out), Maxence Caqueret (out), Adrian Lahdo (out), Assane Diao (out) · Parma: El Bilal Touré (out), Adrián Bernabé (out), Hans Nicolussi Caviglia (out), Diego Carlos (out)
- Squad depth-1
Como: 34 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/9MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Parma: 34 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/10DEF/8MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-2
Como: 17 in (0 on loan), 29 out including 0 regulars — Matthias Braunöder to Carrarese, Robert Sánchez from Chelsea, Iván Azón to Getafe · Parma: 18 in (0 on loan), 18 out including 0 regulars — Vincent Sierro from TBC, Diego Carlos from Fenerbahçe, Oliver Sørensen to Celtic
- Referee — Giuseppe Muceraneutral
2.7 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 3 tracked appointments.
- Como last 4 played+100
W W W W — 3.35 scored / 1.00 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Parma last 2 played+49
D L — 0.51 scored / 1.49 conceded per match, 0.51 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 58% · form 60% · goal model 58% · results history 85% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+31
Goal-expectancy model: Como 1.81 xG, Parma 0.87 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Como | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1657 | 1525 |
| Record | 10W 5D 4L | 6W 8D 3L |
| Goals for / against | 37.026708822041485 / 16.818928402353478 | 13.158671558450278 / 12.426713938239713 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 62% | 46% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 17.86620331656288–12.311584634940573 | 8 matches, 6.193184374158476–3.611051577796549 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%59.9% / 23.5% / 16.6%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Willy Kambwala Defenderout
- Edoardo Goldaniga Defenderout
- Mauro Vigorito Goalkeeperout
- Jayden Addai Attackerout
- Maxence Caqueret Midfielderout
- Adrian Lahdo Midfielderout
- Assane Diao Attackerout
- El Bilal Touré Attackerout
- Adrián Bernabé Midfielderout
- Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Midfielderout
- Diego Carlos Defenderout
Availability impact: 10.7% home attack, 6.2% away attack.