Auxerre vs Nice
Saturday 12 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Auxerre attacking output-17
1.11 xG and 1.11 goals per match over the last 16.
- Nice defensive record+24
1.95 xG and 1.95 goals conceded per match.
- Auxerre home record+18
7.1 scored / 4.6 conceded across 7 home matches.
- Nice away record+53
11.0 scored / 21.5 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability-7
Auxerre: Bryan Okoh (out), Sékou Fofana (out), Assane Dioussé (out), Clément Akpa (out), Marvin Senaya (out) · Nice: Laurent Abergel (out), Antoine Mendy (out)
- Squad depth-0
Auxerre: 33 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/7MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Nice: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/9MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-14
Auxerre: 15 in (2 on loan), 16 out including 0 regulars — Josué Casimir to Dinamo Moskva, Francisco Sierralta to Piast Gliwice, Axel Tuanzebe from Burnley · Nice: 9 in (2 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga to Excelsior Virton, Victor Orakpo to Gençlerbirliği, Mohamed Amoura from VfL Wolfsburg
- Match conditionsneutral
broken clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — François Letexierneutral
4.0 yellows and 0.25 reds per match across 12 tracked appointments.
- Auxerre last 5 played-48
L D D D W — 1.02 scored / 1.99 conceded per match, 0.60 points per game (recency weighted).
- Nice last 9 played+49
D L D L D — 0.56 scored / 1.55 conceded per match, 0.58 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 52% · form 53% · goal model 50% · results history 44% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+20
Goal-expectancy model: Auxerre 1.58 xG, Nice 0.98 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Auxerre | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1442 | 1364 |
| Record | 4W 4D 8L | 2W 8D 8L |
| Goals for / against | 17.682983321696724 / 20.272190154331234 | 20.483784513554074 / 35.09599220025844 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 43% | 50% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 7 matches, 7.128889336339486–4.615095355045844 | 10 matches, 10.96444549238185–21.513803456671567 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 83.8%48.2% / 26.3% / 25.5%
- T-3dcompleteness 83.8%48.2% / 26.3% / 25.5%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Bryan Okoh Defenderout
- Sékou Fofana Defenderout
- Assane Dioussé Midfielderout
- Clément Akpa Defenderout
- Marvin Senaya Defenderout
- Laurent Abergel Midfielderout
- Antoine Mendy Defenderout
Availability impact: 7.1% home attack, 3.0% away attack.