Excelsior vs FC Utrecht
Sunday 13 Sep, 10:15 UTC · Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Excelsior attacking output+44
2.03 xG and 2.03 goals per match over the last 12.
- FC Utrecht defensive record+45
1.80 xG and 1.80 goals conceded per match.
- Excelsior home record+42
10.7 scored / 6.6 conceded across 5 home matches.
- FC Utrecht away record+55
13.3 scored / 23.3 conceded across 9 away matches.
- Squad availability+14
Excelsior: Noah Naujoks (out), Alireza Jahanbakhsh (out), Mario Domínguez (out) · FC Utrecht: Marius Broholm (out), Joris van Overeem (out), Niklas Vesterlund (out), Alonzo Engwanda (out), Oualid Agougil (out), Victor Jensen (out), Miliano Jonathans (out), Noah Ohio (out), Kevin Paredes (out)
- Squad depthneutral
Excelsior: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/5MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · FC Utrecht: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/10DEF/3MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+16
Excelsior: 10 in (3 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Stan Henderikx to FC Dordrecht, Nolan Martens to De Graafschap, Mathijs Tielemans to Aalborg BK · FC Utrecht: 12 in (4 on loan), 25 out including 0 regulars — Can Bozdogan to Rizespor, Zidane Iqbal to Dundee United, Jakov Medic from Norwich City
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Sander van der Eijkneutral
3.3 yellows and 0.17 reds per match across 12 tracked appointments.
- Excelsior last 5 played+97
D W W D D — 2.82 scored / 0.88 conceded per match, 2.12 points per game (recency weighted).
- FC Utrecht last 4 played-19
D W L D — 2.88 scored / 2.50 conceded per match, 1.30 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 53% · form 52% · goal model 62% · results history 71% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+39
Goal-expectancy model: Excelsior 2.47 xG, FC Utrecht 1.31 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Excelsior | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1565 | 1478 |
| Record | 4W 4D 3L | 7W 1D 11L |
| Goals for / against | 24.394449671596853 / 17.37122574639976 | 34.16752679374826 / 34.25932739677634 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 49% | 44% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 5 matches, 10.734172614192607–6.572448934123925 | 9 matches, 13.322298481462097–23.276706458265394 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 80.0%58.2% / 21.7% / 20.1%
- T-3dcompleteness 80.0%58.2% / 21.7% / 20.1%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Noah Naujoks Midfielderout
- Alireza Jahanbakhsh Attackerout
- Mario Domínguez Attackerout
- Marius Broholm Attackerout
- Joris van Overeem Midfielderout
- Niklas Vesterlund Defenderout
- Alonzo Engwanda Midfielderout
- Oualid Agougil Midfielderout
- Victor Jensen Midfielderout
- Miliano Jonathans Attackerout
- Noah Ohio Attackerout
- Kevin Paredes Midfielderout
Availability impact: 5.3% home attack, 13.9% away attack.