Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb
Wednesday 16 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Stadionul Valentin Stănescu
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Hapoel Be'er Sheva attacking output+6
1.42 xG and 1.42 goals per match over the last 10.
- Dinamo Zagreb defensive record+24
1.86 xG and 1.86 goals conceded per match.
- Hapoel Be'er Sheva home record+54
7.3 scored / 1.9 conceded across 5 home matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb away record+30
10.9 scored / 15.8 conceded across 8 away matches.
- Squad availabilityneutral
No absentees reported by the connected providers.
- Squad depth+25
Hapoel Be'er Sheva: 23 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 0GK/0DEF/0MID/0FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Dinamo Zagreb: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/12DEF/9MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Hapoel Be'er Sheva last 10 played+13
L W W W W — 1.59 scored / 1.33 conceded per match, 1.91 points per game (recency weighted).
- Dinamo Zagreb last 12 played-17
L D W W W — 2.14 scored / 1.80 conceded per match, 1.53 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 48% · form 49% · goal model 47% · results history 51% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+15
Goal-expectancy model: Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1.92 xG, Dinamo Zagreb 1.49 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1570 | 1524 |
| Record | 5W 1D 3L | 6W 4D 5L |
| Goals for / against | 14.189947690556018 / 12.076501949763468 | 31.899422368274593 / 29.771535603642313 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 49% | 53% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 5 matches, 7.272408182235296–1.8572080817528998 | 8 matches, 10.917673221518585–15.765832522376417 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 67.5%46.0% / 25.1% / 28.8%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
No absentees reported.
No absentees reported.
Availability impact: 0.0% home attack, 0.0% away attack.