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Celta de Vigo vs Málaga

Sunday 13 Sep, 12:00 UTC · Abanca-Balaídos

Ref Carlos Muñiz Muñozsky is clear · 30°C · 3 km/h wind
Most probable outcome
CELTA DE VIGO WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

56.4%
Celta de Vigo
23.2%
Draw
20.4%
Málaga
Home xG
1.97
Away xG
1.09
Likely score
1–1
10.2%
Completeness
75.6%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Celta de Vigo attacking output+5

    1.50 xG and 1.50 goals per match over the last 23.

  • Málaga defensive record+18

    1.74 xG and 1.74 goals conceded per match.

  • Celta de Vigo home record+6

    21.3 scored / 19.9 conceded across 11 home matches.

  • Málaga away record+100

    0.0 scored / 6.0 conceded across 2 away matches.

  • Squad availability-2

    Celta de Vigo: Ionuț Radu  (out), Javi Galán (out) · Málaga: Julen Lobete (out)

  • Squad depth+1

    Celta de Vigo: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/9DEF/4MID/10FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Málaga: 33 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/11DEF/10MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity-30

    Celta de Vigo: 13 in (2 on loan), 20 out including 0 regulars — Marc Vidal to Sabadell, Sebastián Cáceres from América, Carles Pérez to TBC · Málaga: 5 in (2 on loan), 8 out including 0 regulars — Pablo Arriaza to Union Estepona, Jens Cajuste from Napoli, Juan Berrocal from Getafe

  • Match conditionsneutral

    sky is clear — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.

  • Referee — Carlos Muñiz Muñozneutral

    Appointed, but not enough tracked matches yet to profile card tendencies.

  • Celta de Vigo last 5 played-29

    D D L L W — 0.61 scored / 1.18 conceded per match, 0.62 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Málaga last 4 played+74

    D L D L — 0.24 scored / 1.73 conceded per match, 0.51 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 67% · form 70% · goal model 57% · results history 53% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output+29

    Goal-expectancy model: Celta de Vigo 1.97 xG, Málaga 1.09 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

Betting parameters

Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

Team comparison

Last-10 window

MetricCelta de VigoMálaga
Elo14841264
Record9W 3D 11L0W 2D 2L
Goals for / against34.576385593 / 36.836833844570040.9899967761116482 / 6.968511280908231
xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Possession50%49%
Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Venue split11 matches, 21.31941699616147–19.895985062347742 matches, 0–6.031285341422688

AI briefing

The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

Confidence

Separation · completeness · model agreement

58Low

Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

Probability evolution

How the answer moved toward kickoff

  • T-7dcompleteness 75.6%
    56.4% / 23.2% / 20.4%
  • T-3dcompleteness 75.6%
    56.4% / 23.2% / 20.4%

Squad availability

Weighted by importance and output

Celta de Vigo
  • Ionuț Radu  Goalkeeperout
  • Javi Galán Defenderout
Málaga
  • Julen Lobete Attackerout

Availability impact: 3.1% home attack, 1.7% away attack.