Le Havre vs Angers SCO
Saturday 12 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Stade Océane
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Le Havre attacking output+17
1.59 xG and 1.59 goals per match over the last 15.
- Angers SCO defensive record+48
2.37 xG and 2.37 goals conceded per match.
- Le Havre home record-3
16.3 scored / 16.8 conceded across 8 home matches.
- Angers SCO away record+100
4.7 scored / 19.7 conceded across 7 away matches.
- Squad availability-3
Le Havre: Lionel Mpasi-Nzau (out), Felix Mambimbi (out), Stephan Zagadou (out), Gauthier Gallon (out) · Angers SCO: Louis Mouton (out), Haris Belkebla (out), Lilian Raolisoa (out)
- Squad depth-0
Le Havre: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 1GK/6DEF/8MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Angers SCO: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/6DEF/3MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-10
Le Havre: 10 in (3 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Étienne Youté Kinkoué to Lausanne Sport, Godson Kyeremeh to Red Star, Fodé Doucouré to Nantes · Angers SCO: 6 in (1 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Jacques Ekomié to Wrexham, Joseph Kalulu from Pau, Marius Courcoul to La Louvière
- Match conditionsneutral
broken clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Ruddy Buquetneutral
2.9 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 7 tracked appointments.
- Le Havre last 5 played-7
L W L D D — 1.31 scored / 1.46 conceded per match, 0.85 points per game (recency weighted).
- Angers SCO last 5 played+32
L L D W W — 0.77 scored / 1.41 conceded per match, 0.59 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 70% · form 69% · goal model 68% · results history 54% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+48
Goal-expectancy model: Le Havre 2.35 xG, Angers SCO 0.91 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Le Havre | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1464 | 1218 |
| Record | 2W 10D 2L | 1W 3D 11L |
| Goals for / against | 23.794054818242277 / 25.179375938616772 | 9.533564517393406 / 35.573076422096875 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 45% | 43% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 8 matches, 16.273234668470682–16.771343015937077 | 7 matches, 4.71598423004215–19.657639393856893 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 83.8%63.2% / 20.8% / 16.0%
- T-3dcompleteness 83.8%63.2% / 20.8% / 16.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Lionel Mpasi-Nzau Goalkeeperout
- Felix Mambimbi Attackerout
- Stephan Zagadou Defenderout
- Gauthier Gallon Goalkeeperout
- Louis Mouton Midfielderout
- Haris Belkebla Midfielderout
- Lilian Raolisoa Defenderout
Availability impact: 6.4% home attack, 4.8% away attack.