Sturm Graz vs Rennes
Wednesday 16 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Merkur Arena
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Sturm Graz attacking output-9
1.04 xG and 1.04 goals per match over the last 14.
- Rennes defensive record-3
1.06 xG and 1.06 goals conceded per match.
- Sturm Graz home record+43
9.7 scored / 3.8 conceded across 7 home matches.
- Rennes away record-70
22.5 scored / 11.4 conceded across 8 away matches.
- Squad availabilityneutral
No absentees reported by the connected providers.
- Squad depth-25
Rennes: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/7MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+35
Rennes: 10 in (2 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Jonathan Do Marcolino to Annecy, Lilian Brassier to Eintracht Frankfurt, Breel Embolo to Atlanta United
- Sturm Graz last 12 played+9
L L W W W — 1.15 scored / 0.97 conceded per match, 1.27 points per game (recency weighted).
- Rennes last 6 played-27
W W W L W — 2.01 scored / 1.46 conceded per match, 2.62 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 23% · form 18% · goal model 23% · results history 18% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-24
Goal-expectancy model: Sturm Graz 1.26 xG, Rennes 1.99 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Sturm Graz | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1466 | 1670 |
| Record | 5W 1D 8L | 9W 5D 1L |
| Goals for / against | 14.52331254201312 / 17.194801272725137 | 29.259255475661856 / 15.844514593281026 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 42% | 47% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 7 matches, 9.731742278378766–3.7520677738079873 | 8 matches, 22.482373084215695–11.357971774240179 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 64.4%23.4% / 24.0% / 52.6%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
No absentees reported.
No absentees reported.
Availability impact: 0.0% home attack, 0.0% away attack.