Elversberg vs FC Bayern München
Sunday 13 Sep, 15:30 UTC · URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Elversberg attacking output+100
3.51 xG and 3.51 goals per match over the last 2.
- FC Bayern München defensive record-23
1.14 xG and 1.14 goals conceded per match.
- Elversberg home record+50
3.0 scored / 2.0 conceded across 1 home matches.
- FC Bayern München away record-100
47.7 scored / 14.1 conceded across 13 away matches.
- Squad availability-0
Elversberg: Lukas Pinckert (out), Luis Seifert (out), Tom Zimmerschied (out) · FC Bayern München: Jamal Musiala (out), Serge Gnabry (out), Lennart Karl (out)
- Squad depth+1
Elversberg: 27 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/5MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · FC Bayern München: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/7MID/3FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+24
Elversberg: 2 in (1 on loan), 7 out including 0 regulars — Jason Ceka to SC Cambuur, Filimon Gerezgiher to Fortuna Düsseldorf, Noel Futkeu from Eintracht Frankfurt · FC Bayern München: 8 in (0 on loan), 17 out including 0 regulars — Arijon Ibrahimovic to FC Augsburg, Leon Goretzka to Aston Villa, João Palhinha to Benfica
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Sascha Stegemannneutral
3.5 yellows and 0.17 reds per match across 6 tracked appointments.
- Elversberg last 2 played+50
W W — 3.51 scored / 2.51 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- FC Bayern München last 6 played-100
W D W D W — 3.18 scored / 0.42 conceded per match, 2.30 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 29% · form 34% · goal model 18% · results history 45% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-48
Goal-expectancy model: Elversberg 1.65 xG, FC Bayern München 3.09 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Elversberg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1788 | 1914 |
| Record | 2W 0D 0L | 21W 1D 1L |
| Goals for / against | 7.010108052106343 / 5.010108052106343 | 86.1689722659991 / 26.202032858291723 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | DATA UNAVAILABLE | 66% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 1 matches, 3.0000000000000004–2 | 13 matches, 47.68569997780643–14.081405307275789 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.1%28.4% / 23.3% / 48.3%
- T-3dcompleteness 68.1%28.4% / 23.3% / 48.3%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Lukas Pinckert Defenderout
- Luis Seifert Defenderout
- Tom Zimmerschied Attackerout
- Jamal Musiala Midfielderout
- Serge Gnabry Attackerout
- Lennart Karl Midfielderout
Availability impact: 4.8% home attack, 4.8% away attack.