Manchester City vs Sunderland
Sunday 20 Sep, 13:00 UTC · Etihad Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Manchester City attacking output+64
2.23 xG and 2.23 goals per match over the last 28.
- Sunderland defensive record+1
1.57 xG and 1.57 goals conceded per match.
- Manchester City home record+100
38.7 scored / 8.7 conceded across 12 home matches.
- Sunderland away record+24
9.2 scored / 13.1 conceded across 8 away matches.
- Squad availability+7
Manchester City: Jérémy Doku (out) · Sunderland: Alan Browne (out), Romaine Mundle (out), Aji Alese (out), Habib Diarra (out)
- Squad depth-1
Manchester City: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/11DEF/7MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Sunderland: 35 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/10DEF/6MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-2
Manchester City: 12 in (0 on loan), 20 out including 0 regulars — Claudio Echeverri to Benfica, Iliman Ndiaye from Everton, Jeremy Monga to Swansea City · Sunderland: 8 in (1 on loan), 26 out including 0 regulars — Kevin Danso from Tottenham Hotspur, Luís Semedo to Clermont, Juan Riquelme Angulo Caiced from Independiente del Valle
- Manchester City last 5 played+88
W W W W W — 2.23 scored / 0.48 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Sunderland last 5 played-16
W D W L W — 1.00 scored / 0.67 conceded per match, 1.87 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 75% · form 77% · goal model 78% · results history 74% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+68
Goal-expectancy model: Manchester City 2.77 xG, Sunderland 0.74 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Manchester City | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1760 | 1441 |
| Record | 20W 6D 2L | 4W 5D 4L |
| Goals for / against | 62.50645297579875 / 18.998466862190746 | 13.898721149945443 / 22.000668529777823 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 60% | 43% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 12 matches, 38.68546574517253–8.721890466359827 | 8 matches, 9.207258869119345–13.071517974410815 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 76.3%72.7% / 17.7% / 9.6%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Jérémy Doku Attackerout
- Alan Browne Midfielderout
- Romaine Mundle Attackerout
- Aji Alese Defenderout
- Habib Diarra Midfielderout
Availability impact: 1.7% home attack, 6.1% away attack.