PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord
Sunday 13 Sep, 14:45 UTC · MAC³PARK Stadion
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- PEC Zwolle attacking output+11
1.23 xG and 1.23 goals per match over the last 15.
- Feyenoord defensive record+5
1.20 xG and 1.20 goals conceded per match.
- PEC Zwolle home record-3
11.2 scored / 11.6 conceded across 7 home matches.
- Feyenoord away record-10
9.1 scored / 7.4 conceded across 8 away matches.
- Squad availability+4
PEC Zwolle: Younes Namli (out), Filip Krastev (out), Jan Bürger (out) · Feyenoord: Jeremiah St. Juste (out), Givairo Read (out), Gonçalo Borges (out), Jordan Bos (out), Gijs Smal (out)
- Squad depth-1
PEC Zwolle: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/6DEF/9MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Feyenoord: 33 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/9DEF/8MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+16
PEC Zwolle: 8 in (1 on loan), 11 out including 0 regulars — Filip Krastev from Lommel SK, Sydney van Hooijdonk from Estrela Amadora, Jan Bürger from VfL Wolfsburg · Feyenoord: 12 in (3 on loan), 18 out including 0 regulars — Reiss Nelson from Arsenal, Jordan Lotomba to Celtic, Florian Kastenmeier from Fortuna Düsseldorf
- Match conditionsneutral
moderate rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Alex Bosneutral
3.4 yellows and 0.40 reds per match across 5 tracked appointments.
- PEC Zwolle last 4 played+39
D W W W — 2.39 scored / 1.61 conceded per match, 1.63 points per game (recency weighted).
- Feyenoord last 8 played-17
L W D W W — 2.58 scored / 2.24 conceded per match, 1.86 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 19% · form 18% · goal model 26% · results history 41% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-20
Goal-expectancy model: PEC Zwolle 1.41 xG, Feyenoord 2.01 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1331 | 1589 |
| Record | 3W 5D 7L | 7W 8D 3L |
| Goals for / against | 18.443880179692254 / 38.268288876719126 | 32.40528489821537 / 21.61947783163664 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 45% | 54% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 7 matches, 11.170827118555147–11.555970879121794 | 8 matches, 9.075160614328635–7.4441961339572975 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 80.0%27.6% / 24.0% / 48.4%
- T-3dcompleteness 80.0%27.6% / 24.0% / 48.4%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Younes Namli Attackerout
- Filip Krastev Midfielderout
- Jan Bürger Defenderout
- Jeremiah St. Juste Defenderout
- Givairo Read Defenderout
- Gonçalo Borges Attackerout
- Jordan Bos Defenderout
- Gijs Smal Defenderout
Availability impact: 4.7% home attack, 7.2% away attack.