TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart

• TSG Hoffenheim attacking output+17

  1.47 xG and 1.47 goals per match over the last 16.

• VfB Stuttgart defensive record+21

  1.44 xG and 1.44 goals conceded per match.

• TSG Hoffenheim home record+18

  15.7 scored / 12.5 conceded across 9 home matches.

• VfB Stuttgart away record-1

  20.7 scored / 20.6 conceded across 10 away matches.

• Squad availability+17

  TSG Hoffenheim: Luis Engelns (out), Fisnik Asllani (out), Alexander Prass (out), Ozan Kabak (out), Andrej Kramaric (out), Bernardo (out), Tim Lemperle (out), Koki Machida (out) · VfB Stuttgart: Leonidas Stergiou (out), Jeremy Arévalo  (out), Josha Vagnoman (out), Stefan Drljaca (out), Justin Diehl  (out), Tiago Tomás (out), Lorenz Assignon  (out), Dan-Axel Zagadou  (out), Leo Sauer  (out), Ramon Hendriks (out), Jeff Chabot (out), Nikolas Nartey  (out), Grischa Prömel (out), Dennis Seimen  (out), Luca Jaquez  (out), Chris Führich  (out)

• Squad depth-1

  TSG Hoffenheim: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/5MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · VfB Stuttgart: 33 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/3DEF/7MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

• Recent transfer activity-34

  TSG Hoffenheim: 16 in (1 on loan), 28 out including 0 regulars — Arthur Chaves to Botafogo, Alessandro Vogt to FC Heidenheim, Dennis Geiger to NEC Nijmegen · VfB Stuttgart: 6 in (1 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Jeremy Arévalo  to Estrela Amadora, Badredine Bouanani to Rangers, Mirza Catovic to Barcelona II

• Match conditionsneutral

  scattered clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.

• Referee — Sven Jablonskineutral

  2.9 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 7 tracked appointments.

• TSG Hoffenheim last 4 played-16

  L L W W — 2.16 scored / 2.49 conceded per match, 0.77 points per game (recency weighted).

• VfB Stuttgart last 7 played-39

  W W L W L — 2.63 scored / 1.84 conceded per match, 1.95 points per game (recency weighted).

• Model agreementneutral

  Elo 34% · form 35% · goal model 41% · results history 16% for the home win.

• Expected attacking output+5

  Goal-expectancy model: TSG Hoffenheim 1.82 xG, VfB Stuttgart 1.66 xG.

• Over 1.5 goals

  Total goals · very high confidence in this outcome

  37 observed matches · raw corner/card counts · 80% input coverage · XI pending

  Why this pick →
  85.0%

• TSG Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart (12)76.2%

  Double chance — any winner, no draw.

  Why this number →
• TSG Hoffenheim or draw (1X)65.0%

  Double chance — home not beaten.

  Why this number →
• Draw or VfB Stuttgart (X2)58.8%

  Double chance — away not beaten.

  Why this number →
• TSG Hoffenheim win41.2%

  Home side wins in 90 minutes.

  Why this number →
• VfB Stuttgart win35.0%

  Away side wins in 90 minutes.

  Why this number →
• Draw23.8%

  Level after 90 minutes.

  Why this number →
• TSG Hoffenheim win to nil15.7%

  Home wins without conceding.

  Why this number →
• VfB Stuttgart win to nil13.1%

  Away wins without conceding.

  Why this number →

Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

• T-7dcompleteness 72.5%
  31.9% / 25.0% / 43.1%
• T-3dcompleteness 80.0%
  34.3% / 25.3% / 40.4%
• T-24hcompleteness 80.0%
  34.3% / 25.3% / 40.4%

Availability impact: 12.0% home attack, 22.5% away attack.