Torino vs Roma
Monday 14 Sep, 16:30 UTC · Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Torino attacking output-8
1.20 xG and 1.20 goals per match over the last 18.
- Roma defensive record-24
0.95 xG and 0.95 goals conceded per match.
- Torino home record-27
9.5 scored / 13.8 conceded across 8 home matches.
- Roma away record-20
18.1 scored / 13.2 conceded across 12 away matches.
- Squad availability+2
Torino: Cesare Casadei (out), Franco Israel (out) · Roma: Evan Ndicka (out), Devyne Rensch (out), Leonardo Balerdi (out)
- Squad depth+2
Torino: 36 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/11DEF/10MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Roma: 27 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/9DEF/6MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activityneutral
Torino: 25 in (2 on loan), 34 out including 0 regulars — Tino Anjorin to Göztepe, Alberto Paleari to AEK Larnaca, Ricardo Rodríguez from TBC · Roma: 15 in (0 on loan), 26 out including 0 regulars — Robinio Vaz to Hull City, Mattia Mannini to Benevento, Neil El Aynaoui to RB Leipzig
- Referee — Fabio Marescaneutral
4.0 yellows and 1.67 reds per match across 3 tracked appointments.
- Torino last 4 played-15
W L L D — 1.34 scored / 1.64 conceded per match, 1.04 points per game (recency weighted).
- Roma last 6 played-100
D W W W W — 2.66 scored / 0.55 conceded per match, 2.41 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 24% · form 19% · goal model 24% · results history 9% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-21
Goal-expectancy model: Torino 1.22 xG, Roma 1.86 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Torino | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1461 | 1648 |
| Record | 5W 5D 8L | 15W 2D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 21.60388409193979 / 25.09933450999103 | 38.77394719357762 / 21.818776175567567 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 42% | 55% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 8 matches, 9.515953207330385–13.844987057373071 | 12 matches, 18.093075146114376–13.24572772351402 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 76.3%22.1% / 23.7% / 54.2%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Cesare Casadei Midfielderout
- Franco Israel Goalkeeperout
- Evan Ndicka Defenderout
- Devyne Rensch Defenderout
- Leonardo Balerdi Defenderout
Availability impact: 3.3% home attack, 4.2% away attack.