Le Mans vs Lens
Sunday 13 Sep, 15:15 UTC · Stade de La Pincenardière
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Le Mans attacking output+14
1.66 xG and 1.66 goals per match over the last 3.
- Lens defensive record+3
1.39 xG and 1.39 goals conceded per match.
- Le Mans home recordneutral
2.0 scored / 2.0 conceded across 1 home matches.
- Lens away record-3
11.5 scored / 11.1 conceded across 7 away matches.
- Squad availability+6
Le Mans: Djibril Sidibé (out), Nicolas Kocik (out) · Lens: Nidal Celik (out), Jonathan Gradit (out), Samson Baidoo (out), Maik Nawrocki (out), Jhoanner Chávez (out)
- Squad depth+0
Le Mans: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/9DEF/8MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Lens: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/7DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+31
Le Mans: 8 in (3 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Milan Robin to Estoril, Habib Diallo from Metz, Raúl Torrente from Dinamo Zagreb · Lens: 16 in (2 on loan), 22 out including 0 regulars — Jean-Clair Todibo from West Ham United, Junior Kadile from Servette, Gabin Capuano to Quevilly Rouen
- Match conditionsneutral
broken clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Hakim Ben El Hadjneutral
3.5 yellows and 0.50 reds per match across 6 tracked appointments.
- Le Mans last 3 played-17
D L D — 1.65 scored / 1.99 conceded per match, 0.67 points per game (recency weighted).
- Lens last 6 played-31
W L L W W — 1.92 scored / 1.30 conceded per match, 1.65 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 20% · form 14% · goal model 26% · results history 20% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-20
Goal-expectancy model: Le Mans 1.41 xG, Lens 2.00 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Le Mans | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1388 | 1631 |
| Record | 0W 2D 1L | 8W 3D 3L |
| Goals for / against | 4.980555691248156 / 5.982064649384819 | 28.328672261339896 / 19.452938134857657 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | DATA UNAVAILABLE | 52% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 1 matches, 2–2 | 7 matches, 11.53409276741253–11.121409366447594 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.1%24.1% / 23.7% / 52.2%
- T-3dcompleteness 68.1%24.1% / 23.7% / 52.2%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Djibril Sidibé Defenderout
- Nicolas Kocik Goalkeeperout
- Nidal Celik Defenderout
- Jonathan Gradit Defenderout
- Samson Baidoo Defenderout
- Maik Nawrocki Defenderout
- Jhoanner Chávez Defenderout
Availability impact: 3.1% home attack, 7.0% away attack.