Lorient vs Toulouse
Saturday 12 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Lorient attacking output-2
1.33 xG and 1.33 goals per match over the last 37.
- Toulouse defensive record+19
2.09 xG and 2.09 goals conceded per match.
- Lorient home record+10
29.8 scored / 26.4 conceded across 18 home matches.
- Toulouse away record+43
8.1 scored / 14.2 conceded across 7 away matches.
- Squad availability-3
Lorient: Mohamed Bamba (out), Arthur Avom (out), Bingourou Kamara (out) · Toulouse: Aron Dønnum (out), Alexis Vossah (out)
- Squad depth-1
Lorient: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/9DEF/7MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Toulouse: 24 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/7DEF/7MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+19
Lorient: 7 in (1 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Jérémy Hatchi to Montpellier, Ibrahima Baldé from Rodez, Srdjan Kuzmic from Viborg FF · Toulouse: 12 in (1 on loan), 20 out including 0 regulars — Niko Sigur from Hajduk Split, Mathis Amougou from Strasbourg, Casper Tengstedt from Feyenoord
- Match conditionsneutral
scattered clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Aurélien Petitneutral
Appointed, but not enough tracked matches yet to profile card tendencies.
- Lorient last 12 played+4
W L D L W — 1.15 scored / 1.07 conceded per match, 1.27 points per game (recency weighted).
- Toulouse last 5 played-1
L W D W D — 0.73 scored / 0.71 conceded per match, 1.10 points per game (recency weighted).
- Head-to-head-28
2 previous meetings: Lorient 0W 1D 1L, 1-2 on aggregate (-0.50 goal difference per meeting), 1.50 goals per match.
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 57% · form 60% · goal model 52% · results history 48% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+22
Goal-expectancy model: Lorient 1.74 xG, Toulouse 1.09 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Lorient | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1501 | 1383 |
| Record | 12W 13D 12L | 3W 3D 9L |
| Goals for / against | 49.34342904461687 / 48.972316581227204 | 21.002812198664394 / 31.31687035891349 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 52% | 44% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 18 matches, 29.825870750629374–26.361287277907103 | 7 matches, 8.10280969779385–14.187732704667235 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 86.9%51.6% / 24.5% / 23.9%
- T-3dcompleteness 86.9%51.6% / 24.5% / 23.9%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Mohamed Bamba Attackerout
- Arthur Avom Midfielderout
- Bingourou Kamara Goalkeeperout
- Aron Dønnum Midfielderout
- Alexis Vossah Midfielderout
Availability impact: 5.0% home attack, 3.1% away attack.