Genoa vs Frosinone
Saturday 12 Sep, 13:00 UTC · Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Genoa attacking output-30
0.78 xG and 0.78 goals per match over the last 19.
- Frosinone defensive record-19
1.01 xG and 1.01 goals conceded per match.
- Genoa home record-27
7.5 scored / 12.3 conceded across 9 home matches.
- Frosinone away record-100
3.0 scored / 0.0 conceded across 1 away matches.
- Squad availability-3
Genoa: Elias Havel (out), Hamed Traoré (out) · Frosinone: Romano Schmid (out)
- Squad depth-0
Genoa: 33 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/12DEF/7MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Frosinone: 37 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/12DEF/11MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-10
Genoa: 24 in (1 on loan), 33 out including 0 regulars — Kingsley Ehizibue from TBC, Federico Insúa from TBC, Aarón Martín to Racing Santander · Frosinone: 13 in (2 on loan), 21 out including 0 regulars — Ilias Koutsoupias to Anderlecht, Kevin Barcella to Crotone, Tomas Bobcek from Lechia Gdańsk
- Match conditionsneutral
sky is clear — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Andrea Rapuanoneutral
3.7 yellows and 0.33 reds per match across 3 tracked appointments.
- Genoa last 2 played-100
L L — 0.51 scored / 2.52 conceded per match, 0.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Frosinone last 3 played-51
W W L — 2.04 scored / 1.02 conceded per match, 2.04 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 17% · form 15% · goal model 23% · results history 4% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-19
Goal-expectancy model: Genoa 1.01 xG, Frosinone 1.59 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Genoa | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1396 | 1671 |
| Record | 5W 4D 11L | 2W 0D 1L |
| Goals for / against | 14.77535433978709 / 26.07678234178657 | 6.057191881636383 / 3.0228989617521953 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 52% | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 7.491135258685772–12.277019784883223 | 1 matches, 3–0 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 56.9%20.1% / 25.2% / 54.7%
- T-3dcompleteness 64.4%19.6% / 24.8% / 55.6%
- T-24hcompleteness 64.4%19.6% / 24.8% / 55.6%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Elias Havel Attackerout
- Hamed Traoré Attackerout
- Romano Schmid Midfielderout
Availability impact: 3.4% home attack, 1.6% away attack.