Deportivo A Coruña vs Sevilla
Wednesday 16 Sep, 17:00 UTC · Estadio Abanca-Riazor
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Deportivo A Coruña attacking output+32
2.02 xG and 2.02 goals per match over the last 4.
- Sevilla defensive record+9
1.56 xG and 1.56 goals conceded per match.
- Deportivo A Coruña home record+51
4.0 scored / 2.0 conceded across 2 home matches.
- Sevilla away record+41
6.9 scored / 15.0 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability+5
Deportivo A Coruña: Noé Carrillo (out) · Sevilla: Arouna Sangante (out), Isaac Romero (out), Rubén Vargas (out)
- Squad depth+0
Deportivo A Coruña: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/10DEF/9MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Sevilla: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+10
Deportivo A Coruña: 11 in (1 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Eric Puerto to Penafiel, José Ángel Jurado to TBC, Charlie Patiño to VfL Bochum 1848 · Sevilla: 13 in (3 on loan), 18 out including 0 regulars — Lucas Stassin from Saint-Étienne, Youssouf Fofana from AC Milan, Félix Correia from LOSC Lille
- Deportivo A Coruña last 4 played+39
W W D D — 2.04 scored / 1.26 conceded per match, 2.04 points per game (recency weighted).
- Sevilla last 2 played+49
D L — 1.00 scored / 1.98 conceded per match, 0.51 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 72% · form 76% · goal model 59% · results history 79% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+33
Goal-expectancy model: Deportivo A Coruña 1.78 xG, Sevilla 0.81 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Deportivo A Coruña | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1649 | 1366 |
| Record | 2W 2D 0L | 4W 2D 12L |
| Goals for / against | 8.071928255812212 / 5.026893855231697 | 15.262795374401925 / 28.02423086130725 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 43% | 52% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 2 matches, 4.037360618580087–1.9999999999999998 | 10 matches, 6.878294356025667–14.979862475148748 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 64.4%62.2% / 23.3% / 14.5%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Noé Carrillo Midfielderout
- Arouna Sangante Defenderout
- Isaac Romero Attackerout
- Rubén Vargas Attackerout
Availability impact: 1.6% home attack, 4.8% away attack.