Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Wednesday 16 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Old Trafford
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Manchester United attacking output+16
1.40 xG and 1.40 goals per match over the last 21.
- Brighton & Hove Albion defensive record-8
1.11 xG and 1.11 goals conceded per match.
- Manchester United home record+23
16.6 scored / 11.6 conceded across 11 home matches.
- Brighton & Hove Albion away record-37
22.6 scored / 14.5 conceded across 11 away matches.
- Squad availability+10
Manchester United: Carlos Baleba (out), Mason Mount (out), Manuel Ugarte (out), Amad Diallo (out) · Brighton & Hove Albion: Femi Azeez (out), Stefanos Tzimas (out), Mats Wieffer (out), Georginio Rutter (out), Yankuba Minteh (out), Evan Ferguson (out), Jason Steele (out), Jack Hinshelwood (out)
- Squad depth+0
Manchester United: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/9DEF/7MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Brighton & Hove Albion: 36 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/11DEF/7MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+13
Manchester United: 8 in (1 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Chido Obi to Willem II, Toby Collyer to West Bromwich Albion, Carlos Baleba from Brighton & Hove Albion · Brighton & Hove Albion: 13 in (0 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Femi Azeez from Millwall, Eiran Cashin to Derby County, Matías Orozco to Castellón
- Referee — Farai Hallamneutral
3.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 5 tracked appointments.
- Manchester United last 4 played+66
W D W L — 2.79 scored / 1.47 conceded per match, 1.78 points per game (recency weighted).
- Brighton & Hove Albion last 6 played-90
D L W W W — 3.04 scored / 1.24 conceded per match, 1.75 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 32% · form 32% · goal model 35% · results history 40% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-5
Goal-expectancy model: Manchester United 1.59 xG, Brighton & Hove Albion 1.74 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Manchester United | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1519 | 1616 |
| Record | 8W 7D 6L | 9W 9D 3L |
| Goals for / against | 29.42161677175457 / 27.771079302286946 | 39.21914567763727 / 23.251806206281955 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 57% | 58% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 11 matches, 16.566701853437046–11.600950760628729 | 11 matches, 22.574888910563594–14.478686516134196 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 76.3%34.7% / 26.7% / 38.6%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Carlos Baleba Midfielderout
- Mason Mount Midfielderout
- Manuel Ugarte Midfielderout
- Amad Diallo Attackerout
- Femi Azeez Midfielderout
- Stefanos Tzimas Attackerout
- Mats Wieffer Defenderout
- Georginio Rutter Attackerout
- Yankuba Minteh Attackerout
- Evan Ferguson Attackerout
- Jason Steele Goalkeeperout
- Jack Hinshelwood Midfielderout
Availability impact: 6.3% home attack, 12.5% away attack.