Sunderland vs Arsenal
Saturday 12 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Stadium of Light
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Sunderland attacking output-24
0.99 xG and 0.99 goals per match over the last 14.
- Arsenal defensive record-31
0.90 xG and 0.90 goals conceded per match.
- Sunderland home record-35
4.8 scored / 9.0 conceded across 6 home matches.
- Arsenal away record-44
26.5 scored / 14.2 conceded across 14 away matches.
- Squad availability-3
Sunderland: Alan Browne (out), Romaine Mundle (out), Aji Alese (out), Habib Diarra (out) · Arsenal: Jurriën Timber (out), Bruno Guimarães (out), William Saliba (out)
- Squad depth+2
Sunderland: 35 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/10DEF/6MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Arsenal: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/5MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-43
Sunderland: 9 in (1 on loan), 28 out including 0 regulars — Kevin Danso from Tottenham Hotspur, Luís Semedo to Clermont, Juan Riquelme Angulo Caiced from Independiente del Valle · Arsenal: 1 in (0 on loan), 4 out including 0 regulars — Gabriel Martinelli to Al Hilal, Reiss Nelson to TBC, Christos Tzolis from Club Brugge
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — John Brooksneutral
5.0 yellows and 0.14 reds per match across 7 tracked appointments.
- Sunderland last 5 played+16
W D W L W — 1.00 scored / 0.67 conceded per match, 1.87 points per game (recency weighted).
- Arsenal last 6 played-76
W W W W W — 1.76 scored / 0.24 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 24% · form 21% · goal model 21% · results history 17% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-25
Goal-expectancy model: Sunderland 0.99 xG, Arsenal 1.75 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Sunderland | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1441 | 1628 |
| Record | 4W 5D 4L | 16W 7D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 13.898721149945443 / 22.000668529777823 | 45.835959654670724 / 26.232048208592833 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 43% | 54% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 6 matches, 4.764306048486706–8.95792269487585 | 14 matches, 26.50040980160992–14.16788793156558 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 83.8%21.6% / 24.4% / 54.0%
- T-3dcompleteness 83.8%21.6% / 24.4% / 54.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Alan Browne Midfielderout
- Romaine Mundle Attackerout
- Aji Alese Defenderout
- Habib Diarra Midfielderout
- Jurriën Timber Defenderout
- Bruno Guimarães Midfielderout
- William Saliba Defenderout
Availability impact: 6.1% home attack, 4.4% away attack.