SC Heerenveen vs Telstar
Sunday 13 Sep, 12:30 UTC · Abe Lenstra Stadion
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- SC Heerenveen attacking output+34
1.86 xG and 1.86 goals per match over the last 15.
- Telstar defensive record+18
1.72 xG and 1.72 goals conceded per match.
- SC Heerenveen home record+43
19.4 scored / 11.7 conceded across 9 home matches.
- Telstar away record+22
21.1 scored / 29.3 conceded across 19 away matches.
- Squad availability-4
SC Heerenveen: Mees Hilgers (out), Mats Egbring (out), Oliver Braude (out), Marcus Linday (out) · Telstar: Marvin Peersman (out), Emirhan Demircan (out)
- Squad depth+0
SC Heerenveen: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/5DEF/4MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Telstar: 27 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/8MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+17
SC Heerenveen: 4 in (0 on loan), 5 out including 0 regulars — Marko Farji from Venezia, Mees Hilgers from FC Twente, Nikolai Hopland to Randers FC · Telstar: 8 in (2 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Soufiane Hetli to Wydad Casablanca, Sem Valk from FC Dordrecht, Kay Tejan to Selangor
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Serdar Gözübüyükneutral
4.0 yellows and 0.14 reds per match across 7 tracked appointments.
- SC Heerenveen last 5 played+7
L D W W W — 2.22 scored / 2.09 conceded per match, 1.05 points per game (recency weighted).
- Telstar last 12 played+24
L D L L W — 1.39 scored / 1.87 conceded per match, 1.22 points per game (recency weighted).
- Head-to-head+78
2 previous meetings: SC Heerenveen 2W 0D 0L, 6-2 on aggregate (+2.00 goal difference per meeting), 4.00 goals per match.
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 59% · form 65% · goal model 60% · results history 44% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+35
Goal-expectancy model: SC Heerenveen 2.28 xG, Telstar 1.24 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1575 | 1440 |
| Record | 8W 4D 4L | 11W 10D 18L |
| Goals for / against | 27.870963799027475 / 23.623270815943687 | 54.647762374562184 / 67.14663353868504 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 49% | 47% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 19.442407272364797–11.724345173752068 | 19 matches, 21.090937045766253–29.26551478277361 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 86.9%55.6% / 22.4% / 22.0%
- T-3dcompleteness 86.9%55.6% / 22.4% / 22.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Mees Hilgers Defenderout
- Mats Egbring Defenderout
- Oliver Braude Defenderout
- Marcus Linday Midfielderout
- Marvin Peersman Defenderout
- Emirhan Demircan Attackerout
Availability impact: 5.8% home attack, 3.1% away attack.