Blackpool vs Bromley
Saturday 12 Sep, 14:00 UTC · Bloomfield Road
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Blackpool attacking output+4
1.37 xG and 1.37 goals per match over the last 28.
- Bromley defensive record+59
2.50 xG and 2.50 goals conceded per match.
- Blackpool home record+42
22.5 scored / 10.9 conceded across 14 home matches.
- Bromley away record+100
3.0 scored / 7.1 conceded across 2 away matches.
- Squad availability-2
Blackpool: Josh Earl (out)
- Squad depth-1
Blackpool: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/9DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Bromley: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/7DEF/10MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-1
Blackpool: 12 in (1 on loan), 7 out including 0 regulars — Kylian Kouassi to Colchester United, Jerry Yates from Luton Town, Jordan Williams from Portsmouth · Bromley: 10 in (3 on loan), 10 out including 0 regulars — Mickel Miller from Huddersfield Town, George Saville from Luton Town, Owen Mason from Mansfield Town
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Ben Speedieneutral
3.2 yellows and 0.17 reds per match across 6 tracked appointments.
- Blackpool last 2 played-90
L L — 1.00 scored / 2.80 conceded per match, 0.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Bromley last 9 played+92
L L L D W — 0.83 scored / 2.66 conceded per match, 0.78 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 73% · form 76% · goal model 71% · results history 29% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+52
Goal-expectancy model: Blackpool 2.37 xG, Bromley 0.81 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Blackpool | Bromley |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1580 | 1283 |
| Record | 15W 3D 10L | 1W 3D 4L |
| Goals for / against | 38.432282149988126 / 27.651016286023545 | 7.670494257098315 / 22.501209809310787 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 49% | 35% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 14 matches, 22.483188509175132–10.854537251802359 | 2 matches, 3.0202140388894034–7.141498272225825 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 71.9%59.7% / 21.0% / 19.2%
- T-3dcompleteness 79.4%60.5% / 20.6% / 18.9%
- T-24hcompleteness 79.4%60.5% / 20.6% / 18.9%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Josh Earl Defenderout
No absentees reported.
Availability impact: 1.4% home attack, 0.0% away attack.