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Brest vs Paris Saint Germain

Sunday 13 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Stade Francis-Le Ble

Ref Willy Delajod · 3.3 YC/matchbroken clouds · 19°C · 5 km/h wind
Most probable outcome
PARIS SAINT GERMAIN WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

25.7%
Brest
22.6%
Draw
51.7%
Paris Saint Germain
Home xG
1.50
Away xG
2.43
Likely score
1–2
8.3%
Completeness
83.8%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Brest attacking output+32

    1.88 xG and 1.88 goals per match over the last 13.

  • Paris Saint Germain defensive record-22

    0.71 xG and 0.71 goals conceded per match.

  • Brest home record+20

    16.5 scored / 13.7 conceded across 7 home matches.

  • Paris Saint Germain away record-70

    22.9 scored / 7.6 conceded across 11 away matches.

  • Squad availability-1

    Brest: Brendan Chardonnet (out) · Paris Saint Germain: Nuno Mendes  (out)

  • Squad depth+0

    Brest: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/6DEF/7MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Paris Saint Germain: 24 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity+5

    Brest: 7 in (2 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Axel Camblan to Estoril, Giovani Versini from Pau, Noah Edjouma from LOSC Lille · Paris Saint Germain: 9 in (1 on loan), 10 out including 0 regulars — Ibrahim Mbaye to Aston Villa, Bradley Barcola to Liverpool, Ferran Torres from FC Barcelona

  • Match conditionsneutral

    broken clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.

  • Referee — Willy Delajodneutral

    3.3 yellows and 0.14 reds per match across 7 tracked appointments.

  • Brest last 6 played-8

    W D L W D — 1.68 scored / 1.84 conceded per match, 1.66 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Paris Saint Germain last 6 played-56

    W L L D W — 2.70 scored / 1.58 conceded per match, 1.30 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 19% · form 17% · goal model 22% · results history 41% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output-31

    Goal-expectancy model: Brest 1.50 xG, Paris Saint Germain 2.43 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

Betting parameters

Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

Team comparison

Last-10 window

MetricBrestParis Saint Germain
Elo14871736
Record4W 5D 5L16W 1D 5L
Goals for / against24.40906860152913 / 24.36643879486915446.99494956039112 / 15.70286296265217
xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Possession42%68%
Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Venue split7 matches, 16.452279398436506–13.67693852888586111 matches, 22.92323709894701–7.565716814602439

AI briefing

The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

Confidence

Separation · completeness · model agreement

56Low

Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

Probability evolution

How the answer moved toward kickoff

  • T-7dcompleteness 83.8%
    25.7% / 22.6% / 51.7%
  • T-3dcompleteness 83.8%
    25.7% / 22.6% / 51.7%

Squad availability

Weighted by importance and output

Brest
  • Brendan Chardonnet Defenderout
Paris Saint Germain
  • Nuno Mendes  Defenderout

Availability impact: 1.8% home attack, 1.4% away attack.