Nice vs LOSC Lille
Sunday 20 Sep, 15:15 UTC · Allianz Riviera
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Nice attacking output-23
1.14 xG and 1.14 goals per match over the last 18.
- LOSC Lille defensive record-12
1.01 xG and 1.01 goals conceded per match.
- Nice home record-26
9.5 scored / 13.6 conceded across 8 home matches.
- LOSC Lille away record-4
14.4 scored / 13.5 conceded across 11 away matches.
- Squad availability+3
Nice: Laurent Abergel (out), Antoine Mendy (out) · LOSC Lille: Dilane Bakwa (out), Hamza Igamane (out), Nabil Bentaleb (out)
- Squad depth+1
Nice: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/9MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · LOSC Lille: 27 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/4MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-12
Nice: 9 in (2 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga to Excelsior Virton, Victor Orakpo to Gençlerbirliği, Mohamed Amoura from VfL Wolfsburg · LOSC Lille: 6 in (0 on loan), 8 out including 0 regulars — Maurits Kjærgaard from Salzburg, Orlando Gill from San Lorenzo, Ousmane Touré to Dunkerque
- Nice last 9 played-49
D L D L D — 0.56 scored / 1.55 conceded per match, 0.58 points per game (recency weighted).
- LOSC Lille last 7 played-35
L W W D W — 1.87 scored / 1.17 conceded per match, 1.87 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 24% · form 19% · goal model 24% · results history 13% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-20
Goal-expectancy model: Nice 1.11 xG, LOSC Lille 1.71 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Nice | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1364 | 1557 |
| Record | 2W 8D 8L | 10W 2D 7L |
| Goals for / against | 20.483784513554074 / 35.09599220025844 | 23.857041057042835 / 19.268720594175313 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 50% | 57% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 8 matches, 9.515251945738912–13.602022582435994 | 11 matches, 14.417867364019699–13.524087455357924 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 76.3%22.5% / 24.4% / 53.1%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Laurent Abergel Midfielderout
- Antoine Mendy Defenderout
- Dilane Bakwa Attackerout
- Hamza Igamane Attackerout
- Nabil Bentaleb Midfielderout
Availability impact: 3.0% home attack, 4.9% away attack.