← KICK90 board
La LigaT-24hlineups pending

Osasuna vs Espanyol

Saturday 12 Sep, 14:15 UTC · Estadio El Sadar

Ref Lluís Bestard Serverabroken clouds · 28°C · 6 km/h wind
Most probable outcome
OSASUNA WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

59.1%
Osasuna
23.6%
Draw
17.2%
Espanyol
Home xG
1.80
Away xG
0.81
Likely score
1–0
13.3%
Completeness
76.3%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Osasuna attacking output+5

    1.29 xG and 1.29 goals per match over the last 19.

  • Espanyol defensive record-6

    1.28 xG and 1.28 goals conceded per match.

  • Osasuna home record+44

    17.0 scored / 8.3 conceded across 10 home matches.

  • Espanyol away record+19

    8.8 scored / 13.1 conceded across 11 away matches.

  • Squad availability+8

    Espanyol: Javi Puado   (out), Leandro Cabrera (out), Kike García  (out)

  • Squad depth+1

    Osasuna: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Espanyol: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/7DEF/7MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity+22

    Osasuna: 4 in (1 on loan), 6 out including 0 regulars — Romain Del Castillo from Brest, Iker Benito to Querétaro, Diego Rico from Getafe · Espanyol: 10 in (0 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Andoni Gorosabel from Athletic Club, Rubén Sánchez to Elche, Bryan Zaragoza from FC Bayern München

  • Match conditionsneutral

    broken clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.

  • Referee — Lluís Bestard Serveraneutral

    Appointed, but not enough tracked matches yet to profile card tendencies.

  • Osasuna last 4 played-14

    L W W D — 1.26 scored / 1.55 conceded per match, 1.73 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Espanyol last 2 played+24

    D L — 1.00 scored / 1.49 conceded per match, 0.51 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 61% · form 65% · goal model 59% · results history 70% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output+33

    Goal-expectancy model: Osasuna 1.80 xG, Espanyol 0.81 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

Betting parameters

Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

Team comparison

Last-10 window

MetricOsasunaEspanyol
Elo15411384
Record8W 6D 5L3W 7D 9L
Goals for / against24.598245737499344 / 21.386445167426313.759671178206927 / 24.41198701848492
xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Possession46%42%
Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Venue split10 matches, 17.022919752208587–8.25153578492850311 matches, 8.815904806286389–13.056978461699575

AI briefing

The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

Confidence

Separation · completeness · model agreement

61Moderate

Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

Probability evolution

How the answer moved toward kickoff

  • T-7dcompleteness 68.8%
    57.5% / 24.2% / 18.2%
  • T-3dcompleteness 76.3%
    59.1% / 23.6% / 17.2%
  • T-24hcompleteness 76.3%
    59.1% / 23.6% / 17.2%

Squad availability

Weighted by importance and output

Osasuna

No absentees reported.

Espanyol
  • Javi Puado   Attackerout
  • Leandro Cabrera Defenderout
  • Kike García  Attackerout

Availability impact: 0.0% home attack, 5.1% away attack.