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La LigaT-7dlineups pending

Elche vs Real Madrid

Tuesday 15 Sep, 19:30 UTC · Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Referee not appointedWeather pending
Most probable outcome
REAL MADRID WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

32.4%
Elche
24.3%
Draw
43.3%
Real Madrid
Home xG
1.83
Away xG
1.76
Likely score
1–1
9.3%
Completeness
72.5%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Elche attacking output+18

    1.64 xG and 1.64 goals per match over the last 13.

  • Real Madrid defensive record+4

    1.41 xG and 1.41 goals conceded per match.

  • Elche home record+43

    16.2 scored / 9.3 conceded across 8 home matches.

  • Real Madrid away record-5

    18.7 scored / 17.9 conceded across 9 away matches.

  • Squad availability+16

    Elche: Abiel Osorio  (out) · Real Madrid: Raúl Asencio  (out), Ferland Mendy  (out), Thibaut Courtois (out), Rodrygo  (out), Éder Militão  (out), Endrick (out), Thiago Pitarch  (out), Aurélien Tchouaméni (out)

  • Squad depth+2

    Elche: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/9DEF/7MID/11FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Real Madrid: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 1GK/7DEF/6MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity-13

    Elche: 11 in (0 on loan), 10 out including 0 regulars — Roy Revivo from Maccabi Tel Aviv, Rafa Núñez to CD Coria, Kevin Lomónaco from Independiente · Real Madrid: 7 in (1 on loan), 6 out including 0 regulars — Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig, César Palacios to Fulham, Gonzalo García to Fulham

  • Elche last 4 played-87

    L L L D — 1.27 scored / 3.02 conceded per match, 0.24 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Real Madrid last 8 played-69

    W L W W W — 2.38 scored / 0.99 conceded per match, 2.24 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 38% · form 38% · goal model 40% · results history 4% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output+2

    Goal-expectancy model: Elche 1.83 xG, Real Madrid 1.76 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

Betting parameters

Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

Team comparison

Last-10 window

MetricElcheReal Madrid
Elo16061639
Record7W 3D 3L13W 3D 7L
Goals for / against21.336435425424558 / 15.7840312037612853.02956044505998 / 32.3557334023539
xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Possession60%60%
Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Venue split8 matches, 16.216877203419457–9.3131611528553249 matches, 18.67187166816877–17.85101965225409

AI briefing

The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

Confidence

Separation · completeness · model agreement

48Low

Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

Probability evolution

How the answer moved toward kickoff

  • T-7dcompleteness 72.5%
    32.4% / 24.3% / 43.3%

Squad availability

Weighted by importance and output

Elche
  • Abiel Osorio  Attackerout
Real Madrid
  • Raúl Asencio  Defenderout
  • Ferland Mendy  Defenderout
  • Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeperout
  • Rodrygo  Attackerout
  • Éder Militão  Defenderout
  • Endrick Attackerout
  • Thiago Pitarch  Midfielderout
  • Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielderout

Availability impact: 1.7% home attack, 12.0% away attack.