Hamburger SV vs FC Köln
Saturday 19 Sep, 13:30 UTC · Volksparkstadion
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Hamburger SV attacking output-14
1.10 xG and 1.10 goals per match over the last 36.
- FC Köln defensive record+22
1.75 xG and 1.75 goals conceded per match.
- Hamburger SV home record-20
23.7 scored / 31.0 conceded across 18 home matches.
- FC Köln away record+7
7.2 scored / 7.9 conceded across 5 away matches.
- Squad availability+0
Hamburger SV: Jean-Luc Dompé (out), Warmed Omari (out), Jordan Torunarigha (out), Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit (out), Fernando Dickes (out), Albert Sambi Lokonga (out), Miro Muheim (out) · FC Köln: Luca Waldschmidt (out), Said El Mala (out), Sebastian Sebulonsen (out), Malek El Mala (out), Gil Neves (out), Timo Hübers (out), Thijs Dallinga (out)
- Squad depth-0
Hamburger SV: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/8MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · FC Köln: 33 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/9DEF/4MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-2
Hamburger SV: 16 in (2 on loan), 22 out including 0 regulars — Daniel Elfadli to LASK, David Møller Wolfe from Wolverhampton Wanderers, Zakaria El Ouahdi from Genk · FC Köln: 17 in (0 on loan), 18 out including 0 regulars — Julian Pauli to Odense BK, Borna Sosa from Crystal Palace, Mikey Moore from Tottenham U21
- Hamburger SV last 12 played-72
L L D W W — 0.97 scored / 2.41 conceded per match, 0.84 points per game (recency weighted).
- FC Köln last 4 played+30
L W D W — 1.98 scored / 2.59 conceded per match, 1.51 points per game (recency weighted).
- Head-to-head-50
2 previous meetings: Hamburger SV 0W 1D 1L, 2-5 on aggregate (-1.50 goal difference per meeting), 3.50 goals per match.
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 35% · form 35% · goal model 33% · results history 25% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-8
Goal-expectancy model: Hamburger SV 1.46 xG, FC Köln 1.70 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Hamburger SV | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1397 | 1456 |
| Record | 9W 11D 17L | 3W 5D 5L |
| Goals for / against | 39.4489836591742 / 64.8786586971941 | 19.019533045965396 / 21.033756309611956 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 47% | 49% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 18 matches, 23.728795044766787–30.959659866789195 | 5 matches, 7.243468636936395–7.92873418104741 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 75.6%32.1% / 26.6% / 41.3%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Jean-Luc Dompé Attackerout
- Warmed Omari Defenderout
- Jordan Torunarigha Defenderout
- Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit Attackerout
- Fernando Dickes Goalkeeperout
- Albert Sambi Lokonga Midfielderout
- Miro Muheim Defenderout
- Luca Waldschmidt Attackerout
- Said El Mala Attackerout
- Sebastian Sebulonsen Defenderout
- Malek El Mala Attackerout
- Gil Neves Midfielderout
- Timo Hübers Defenderout
- Thijs Dallinga Attackerout
Availability impact: 10.5% home attack, 10.8% away attack.