Levante vs FC Barcelona
Sunday 13 Sep, 14:15 UTC · Estadio Ciudad de Valencia
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Levante attacking output+13
1.47 xG and 1.47 goals per match over the last 13.
- FC Barcelona defensive record-22
0.99 xG and 0.99 goals conceded per match.
- Levante home record+32
10.6 scored / 6.7 conceded across 6 home matches.
- FC Barcelona away record-44
24.1 scored / 13.6 conceded across 12 away matches.
- Squad availability+5
FC Barcelona: Frenkie de Jong (out), Roony Bardghji (out)
- Squad depth+0
Levante: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/10DEF/6MID/10FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · FC Barcelona: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/8MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+10
Levante: 7 in (1 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Xavi Grande to Académica, Carlos Álvarez to América, Martín Krug to Juventud Torremolinos · FC Barcelona: 11 in (1 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Álvaro Cortés to Antwerp, Marc Casadó to Deportivo A Coruña, Guille Fernández to Mallorca
- Match conditionsneutral
sky is clear — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Jon Ander González Estebanneutral
Appointed, but not enough tracked matches yet to profile card tendencies.
- Levante last 3 played+50
D W D — 1.66 scored / 0.66 conceded per match, 1.66 points per game (recency weighted).
- FC Barcelona last 6 played-100
W W W W W — 4.47 scored / 0.62 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 30% · form 27% · goal model 27% · results history 8% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-19
Goal-expectancy model: Levante 1.49 xG, FC Barcelona 2.06 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Levante | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1592 | 1710 |
| Record | 6W 4D 3L | 19W 1D 5L |
| Goals for / against | 19.060952784942106 / 12.255615949330945 | 49.71871825800416 / 24.790240959938405 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 44% | 67% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 6 matches, 10.595437500597033–6.69559728398221 | 12 matches, 24.116534338314196–13.637891403671228 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 80.0%24.9% / 23.5% / 51.6%
- T-3dcompleteness 80.0%24.9% / 23.5% / 51.6%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
No absentees reported.
- Frenkie de Jong Midfielderout
- Roony Bardghji Attackerout
Availability impact: 0.0% home attack, 3.3% away attack.