SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday 12 Sep, 13:30 UTC · Europa-Park Stadion
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- SC Freiburg attacking output+43
1.90 xG and 1.90 goals per match over the last 23.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach defensive record+30
1.71 xG and 1.71 goals conceded per match.
- SC Freiburg home record+51
25.0 scored / 13.7 conceded across 11 home matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach away record+46
9.2 scored / 18.3 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability+13
SC Freiburg: Patrick Osterhage (out), Berkay Yilmaz (out), Florent Muslija (out), Cyriaque Irié (out) · Borussia Mönchengladbach: Enzo Leopold (out), Tim Kleindienst (out), Tomas Cvancara (out), Zento Uno (out), Fabio Chiarodia (out), Jens Castrop (out), Lukas Ullrich (out), Kevin Diks (out), Yukhym Konoplya (out), Daiki Hashioka (out)
- Squad depth-1
SC Freiburg: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/10DEF/4MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Borussia Mönchengladbach: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/4DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+21
SC Freiburg: 7 in (0 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Louey Ben Farhat from Karlsruher SC, Noah Atubolu to Eintracht Frankfurt, Karl Steinmann to Hannover 96 · Borussia Mönchengladbach: 16 in (2 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Tomas Cvancara to Hradec Králové, Nicolas Kühn from Como, Nathan Ngoumou to Nice
- Match conditionsneutral
sky is clear — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Richard Hempelneutral
Appointed, but not enough tracked matches yet to profile card tendencies.
- SC Freiburg last 7 played+82
W W W L W — 2.55 scored / 0.90 conceded per match, 2.53 points per game (recency weighted).
- Borussia Mönchengladbach last 4 played+83
L L D D — 1.28 scored / 2.94 conceded per match, 0.16 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 68% · form 74% · goal model 73% · results history 85% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+58
Goal-expectancy model: SC Freiburg 2.63 xG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.90 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1635 | 1404 |
| Record | 15W 4D 5L | 2W 9D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 43.72985116283229 / 30.760698483963218 | 22.670763941180077 / 29.09244661572155 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 48% | 48% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 11 matches, 25.034313542526597–13.71034388977771 | 10 matches, 9.158453216135129–18.270871868903903 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%69.4% / 19.0% / 11.7%
- T-3dcompleteness 80.0%71.4% / 18.2% / 10.4%
- T-24hcompleteness 80.0%71.4% / 18.2% / 10.4%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Patrick Osterhage Midfielderout
- Berkay Yilmaz Defenderout
- Florent Muslija Attackerout
- Cyriaque Irié Attackerout
- Enzo Leopold Midfielderout
- Tim Kleindienst Attackerout
- Tomas Cvancara Attackerout
- Zento Uno Midfielderout
- Fabio Chiarodia Defenderout
- Jens Castrop Midfielderout
- Lukas Ullrich Defenderout
- Kevin Diks Defenderout
- Yukhym Konoplya Defenderout
- Daiki Hashioka Defenderout
Availability impact: 6.3% home attack, 14.6% away attack.