SC Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen
Saturday 12 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Kooi Stadion
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- SC Cambuur attacking output-12
1.22 xG and 1.22 goals per match over the last 5.
- NEC Nijmegen defensive record+2
1.30 xG and 1.30 goals conceded per match.
- SC Cambuur home record-100
3.0 scored / 13.0 conceded across 3 home matches.
- NEC Nijmegen away record-9
10.4 scored / 8.9 conceded across 8 away matches.
- Squad availability+13
SC Cambuur: Wout Asselman (out), Daan Visser (out), Jamal Amofa (out), Nicolas Binder (out) · NEC Nijmegen: Yassin Moslih (out), Emre Mor (out), Deveron Fonville (out), Philippe Sandler (out), Bryan Linssen (out), Thomas Ouwejan (out), Koki Ogawa (out), Darko Nejasmic (out), Ahmetcan Kaplan (out), Dennis Geiger (out)
- Squad depthneutral
SC Cambuur: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/7DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · NEC Nijmegen: 34 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/7DEF/8MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+14
SC Cambuur: 9 in (5 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Luca Plogmann from Go Ahead Eagles, Billy van Duijl from AZ Alkmaar, Mathieu Maertens from OH Leuven · NEC Nijmegen: 11 in (2 on loan), 22 out including 0 regulars — Ayodele Thomas from RB Leipzig, Thomas Ouwejan to Machida Zelvia, Brayann Pereira to West Bromwich Albion
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Ingmar Oostromneutral
2.5 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 4 tracked appointments.
- SC Cambuur last 5 played-100
D L L L L — 1.23 scored / 3.57 conceded per match, 0.22 points per game (recency weighted).
- NEC Nijmegen last 10 played+15
D L L W W — 1.42 scored / 1.72 conceded per match, 1.10 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 11% · form 9% · goal model 17% · results history 16% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-40
Goal-expectancy model: SC Cambuur 1.23 xG, NEC Nijmegen 2.44 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | SC Cambuur | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1150 | 1526 |
| Record | 0W 1D 4L | 4W 8D 2L |
| Goals for / against | 6.086922297665936 / 17.93818459244568 | 21.086043200305973 / 18.20226047143632 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 47% | 61% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 3 matches, 3.045145495737437–13.008052046075631 | 8 matches, 10.36834901905316–8.865276214463792 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 83.1%16.3% / 20.0% / 63.8%
- T-3dcompleteness 83.1%16.3% / 20.0% / 63.8%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Wout Asselman Midfielderout
- Daan Visser Midfielderout
- Jamal Amofa Defenderout
- Nicolas Binder Attackerout
- Yassin Moslih Defenderout
- Emre Mor Attackerout
- Deveron Fonville Defenderout
- Philippe Sandler Defenderout
- Bryan Linssen Attackerout
- Thomas Ouwejan Defenderout
- Koki Ogawa Attackerout
- Darko Nejasmic Midfielderout
- Ahmetcan Kaplan Defenderout
- Dennis Geiger Midfielderout
Availability impact: 6.5% home attack, 14.5% away attack.