Olympique Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain
Sunday 20 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Stade Vélodrome
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Olympique Marseille attacking output+19
1.71 xG and 1.71 goals per match over the last 16.
- Paris Saint Germain defensive record-22
0.71 xG and 0.71 goals conceded per match.
- Olympique Marseille home record+14
15.0 scored / 12.5 conceded across 9 home matches.
- Paris Saint Germain away record-70
22.9 scored / 7.6 conceded across 11 away matches.
- Squad availability-0
Olympique Marseille: Amine Harit (out) · Paris Saint Germain: Nuno Mendes (out)
- Squad depth-1
Olympique Marseille: 23 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/5MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Paris Saint Germain: 24 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+20
Olympique Marseille: 3 in (0 on loan), 3 out including 0 regulars — Bilal Nadir to TBC, Angel Gomes from Wolverhampton Wanderers, Amir Murillo to Beşiktaş · Paris Saint Germain: 9 in (1 on loan), 10 out including 0 regulars — Ibrahim Mbaye to Aston Villa, Bradley Barcola to Liverpool, Ferran Torres from FC Barcelona
- Olympique Marseille last 6 played-19
L L D W W — 1.96 scored / 2.34 conceded per match, 0.75 points per game (recency weighted).
- Paris Saint Germain last 6 played-56
W L L D W — 2.70 scored / 1.58 conceded per match, 1.30 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 22% · form 20% · goal model 22% · results history 23% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-30
Goal-expectancy model: Olympique Marseille 1.41 xG, Paris Saint Germain 2.30 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Olympique Marseille | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1519 | 1736 |
| Record | 7W 2D 8L | 16W 1D 5L |
| Goals for / against | 27.319347957025744 / 24.85040471771284 | 46.99494956039112 / 15.70286296265217 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 56% | 68% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 15.046101567237304–12.53086283254584 | 11 matches, 22.92323709894701–7.565716814602439 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 76.3%23.4% / 23.0% / 53.7%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Amine Harit Attackerout
- Nuno Mendes Defenderout
Availability impact: 1.7% home attack, 1.4% away attack.