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Serie AT-7dlineups pending

Frosinone vs Como

Sunday 20 Sep, 13:00 UTC · Stadio Benito Stirpe

Referee not appointedWeather pending
Most probable outcome
COMO WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

34.9%
Frosinone
26.6%
Draw
38.5%
Como
Home xG
1.50
Away xG
1.51
Likely score
1–1
11.0%
Completeness
56.9%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Frosinone attacking output+32

    2.02 xG and 2.02 goals per match over the last 3.

  • Como defensive record-33

    0.89 xG and 0.89 goals conceded per match.

  • Frosinone home record+1

    3.1 scored / 3.0 conceded across 2 home matches.

  • Como away record-71

    19.2 scored / 4.9 conceded across 10 away matches.

  • Squad availability+15

    Frosinone: Romano Schmid (out) · Como: Willy Kambwala (out), Edoardo Goldaniga (out), Mauro Vigorito (out), Jayden Addai  (out), Maxence Caqueret (out), Adrian Lahdo (out), Assane Diao (out)

  • Squad depth+1

    Frosinone: 37 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/12DEF/11MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Como: 34 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/9MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity+10

    Frosinone: 13 in (2 on loan), 21 out including 0 regulars — Ilias Koutsoupias to Anderlecht, Kevin Barcella to Crotone, Tomas Bobcek from Lechia Gdańsk · Como: 17 in (0 on loan), 29 out including 0 regulars — Matthias Braunöder to Carrarese, Robert Sánchez from Chelsea, Iván Azón to Getafe

  • Frosinone last 3 played+51

    W W L — 2.04 scored / 1.02 conceded per match, 2.04 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Como last 4 played-100

    W W W W — 3.35 scored / 1.00 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 44% · form 46% · goal model 36% · results history 18% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output-1

    Goal-expectancy model: Frosinone 1.50 xG, Como 1.51 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

    Betting parameters

    Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

    Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

    Team comparison

    Last-10 window

    MetricFrosinoneComo
    Elo16711657
    Record2W 0D 1L10W 5D 4L
    Goals for / against6.057191881636383 / 3.022898961752195337.026708822041485 / 16.818928402353478
    xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
    PossessionDATA UNAVAILABLE62%
    Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
    Venue split2 matches, 3.0600105973631075–3.020003532454369510 matches, 19.19023432730279–4.902054398504397

    AI briefing

    The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

    Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

    Confidence

    Separation · completeness · model agreement

    41Low

    Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

    Probability evolution

    How the answer moved toward kickoff

    • T-7dcompleteness 56.9%
      34.9% / 26.6% / 38.5%

    Squad availability

    Weighted by importance and output

    Frosinone
    • Romano Schmid Midfielderout
    Como
    • Willy Kambwala Defenderout
    • Edoardo Goldaniga Defenderout
    • Mauro Vigorito Goalkeeperout
    • Jayden Addai  Attackerout
    • Maxence Caqueret Midfielderout
    • Adrian Lahdo Midfielderout
    • Assane Diao Attackerout

    Availability impact: 1.6% home attack, 10.7% away attack.