Frosinone vs Como
Sunday 20 Sep, 13:00 UTC · Stadio Benito Stirpe
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Frosinone attacking output+32
2.02 xG and 2.02 goals per match over the last 3.
- Como defensive record-33
0.89 xG and 0.89 goals conceded per match.
- Frosinone home record+1
3.1 scored / 3.0 conceded across 2 home matches.
- Como away record-71
19.2 scored / 4.9 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability+15
Frosinone: Romano Schmid (out) · Como: Willy Kambwala (out), Edoardo Goldaniga (out), Mauro Vigorito (out), Jayden Addai (out), Maxence Caqueret (out), Adrian Lahdo (out), Assane Diao (out)
- Squad depth+1
Frosinone: 37 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/12DEF/11MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Como: 34 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/9MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+10
Frosinone: 13 in (2 on loan), 21 out including 0 regulars — Ilias Koutsoupias to Anderlecht, Kevin Barcella to Crotone, Tomas Bobcek from Lechia Gdańsk · Como: 17 in (0 on loan), 29 out including 0 regulars — Matthias Braunöder to Carrarese, Robert Sánchez from Chelsea, Iván Azón to Getafe
- Frosinone last 3 played+51
W W L — 2.04 scored / 1.02 conceded per match, 2.04 points per game (recency weighted).
- Como last 4 played-100
W W W W — 3.35 scored / 1.00 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 44% · form 46% · goal model 36% · results history 18% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-1
Goal-expectancy model: Frosinone 1.50 xG, Como 1.51 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Frosinone | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1671 | 1657 |
| Record | 2W 0D 1L | 10W 5D 4L |
| Goals for / against | 6.057191881636383 / 3.0228989617521953 | 37.026708822041485 / 16.818928402353478 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | DATA UNAVAILABLE | 62% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 2 matches, 3.0600105973631075–3.0200035324543695 | 10 matches, 19.19023432730279–4.902054398504397 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 56.9%34.9% / 26.6% / 38.5%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Romano Schmid Midfielderout
- Willy Kambwala Defenderout
- Edoardo Goldaniga Defenderout
- Mauro Vigorito Goalkeeperout
- Jayden Addai Attackerout
- Maxence Caqueret Midfielderout
- Adrian Lahdo Midfielderout
- Assane Diao Attackerout
Availability impact: 1.6% home attack, 10.7% away attack.