Getafe vs Deportivo A Coruña
Sunday 13 Sep, 16:30 UTC · Coliseum Alfonso Pérez
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Getafe attacking output-29
0.84 xG and 0.84 goals per match over the last 18.
- Deportivo A Coruña defensive record-6
1.26 xG and 1.26 goals conceded per match.
- Getafe home record-27
7.1 scored / 11.9 conceded across 9 home matches.
- Deportivo A Coruña away record-25
4.0 scored / 3.0 conceded across 2 away matches.
- Squad availability-0
Getafe: Christantus Uche (out) · Deportivo A Coruña: Noé Carrillo (out)
- Squad depth+1
Getafe: 34 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/11DEF/7MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Deportivo A Coruña: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/10DEF/9MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+4
Getafe: 9 in (1 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Yvan Neyou to Volos NFC, Javi Muñoz to Almería, Álex Sancris to Leganés · Deportivo A Coruña: 11 in (1 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Eric Puerto to Penafiel, José Ángel Jurado to TBC, Charlie Patiño to VfL Bochum 1848
- Match conditionsneutral
sky is clear — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxeaneutral
3.1 yellows and 0.22 reds per match across 9 tracked appointments.
- Getafe last 4 played-13
D L L W — 0.75 scored / 1.01 conceded per match, 0.98 points per game (recency weighted).
- Deportivo A Coruña last 4 played-39
W W D D — 2.04 scored / 1.26 conceded per match, 2.04 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 20% · form 16% · goal model 24% · results history 19% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-19
Goal-expectancy model: Getafe 1.06 xG, Deportivo A Coruña 1.62 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Getafe | Deportivo A Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1409 | 1649 |
| Record | 5W 3D 10L | 2W 2D 0L |
| Goals for / against | 15.18987373375541 / 24.51073227081317 | 8.071928255812212 / 5.026893855231697 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 41% | 43% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 7.113424765652718–11.910776675665998 | 2 matches, 4.034593739444529–3.017296869722265 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 71.9%22.8% / 25.2% / 52.0%
- T-3dcompleteness 71.9%22.8% / 25.2% / 52.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Christantus Uche Attackerout
- Noé Carrillo Midfielderout
Availability impact: 1.7% home attack, 1.6% away attack.