← KICK90 board
FA CupT-7dlineups pending

Witham Town vs St Albans City

Saturday 19 Sep, 14:00 UTC · The Village Glass Stadium

Referee not appointedWeather pending
Most probable outcome
WITHAM TOWN WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

49.3%
Witham Town
25.1%
Draw
25.5%
St Albans City
Home xG
1.97
Away xG
1.21
Likely score
1–1
10.3%
Completeness
60.0%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Witham Town attacking output+37

    1.99 xG and 1.99 goals per match over the last 11.

  • St Albans City defensive record-26

    0.83 xG and 0.83 goals conceded per match.

  • Witham Town home record+51

    16.8 scored / 9.7 conceded across 7 home matches.

  • St Albans City away record-17

    9.4 scored / 7.4 conceded across 6 away matches.

  • Squad availabilityneutral

    No absentees reported by the connected providers.

  • Squad depth+1

    Witham Town: 11 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/4DEF/5MID/0FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · St Albans City: 22 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/6DEF/7MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Witham Town last 11 played+42

    W W D W L — 2.00 scored / 1.17 conceded per match, 2.40 points per game (recency weighted).

  • St Albans City last 8 played-29

    W D L W D — 1.07 scored / 0.49 conceded per match, 2.02 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 53% · form 46% · goal model 54% · results history 54% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output+25

    Goal-expectancy model: Witham Town 1.97 xG, St Albans City 1.21 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

Betting parameters

Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

Team comparison

Last-10 window

MetricWitham TownSt Albans City
Elo16981614
Record7W 3D 1L5W 3D 1L
Goals for / against21.910871139534166 / 11.599864016383699.199764294826453 / 6.657021795463601
xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
PossessionDATA UNAVAILABLE38%
Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Venue split7 matches, 16.78755641396021–9.6709680230870056 matches, 9.419876129061112–7.405162329518657

AI briefing

The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

Confidence

Separation · completeness · model agreement

51Low

Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

Probability evolution

How the answer moved toward kickoff

  • T-7dcompleteness 60.0%
    49.3% / 25.1% / 25.5%

Squad availability

Weighted by importance and output

Witham Town

No absentees reported.

St Albans City

No absentees reported.

Availability impact: 0.0% home attack, 0.0% away attack.