Celtic vs Ferencvárosi
Thursday 17 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Celtic Park
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Celtic attacking output+16
1.52 xG and 1.52 goals per match over the last 14.
- Ferencvárosi defensive record-17
1.07 xG and 1.07 goals conceded per match.
- Celtic home record+7
12.3 scored / 11.3 conceded across 7 home matches.
- Ferencvárosi away record+7
16.6 scored / 18.3 conceded across 13 away matches.
- Squad availability-5
Celtic: Cameron Carter-Vickers (out), Alistair Johnston (out)
- Squad depth-25
Celtic: 27 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/7DEF/6MID/10FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Ferencvárosi: 21 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 0GK/0DEF/0MID/0FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Celtic last 12 played-22
L W W L W — 1.77 scored / 2.21 conceded per match, 1.48 points per game (recency weighted).
- Ferencvárosi last 12 played-55
W W D W D — 1.87 scored / 0.76 conceded per match, 2.32 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 25% · form 24% · goal model 26% · results history 19% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-21
Goal-expectancy model: Celtic 1.42 xG, Ferencvárosi 2.06 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Celtic | Ferencvárosi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1474 | 1657 |
| Record | 6W 3D 5L | 16W 6D 4L |
| Goals for / against | 21.329104874393465 / 26.655156479342715 | 46.112811178435045 / 27.748234990293664 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 51% | 46% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 7 matches, 12.276500158124879–11.331318575920678 | 13 matches, 16.551107311540896–18.329177654901837 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 67.5%25.5% / 24.0% / 50.5%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Cameron Carter-Vickers Defenderout
- Alistair Johnston Defenderout
No absentees reported.
Availability impact: 2.8% home attack, 0.0% away attack.