Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town
Saturday 12 Sep, 14:00 UTC · Selhurst Park
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Crystal Palace attacking output+5
1.27 xG and 1.27 goals per match over the last 27.
- Ipswich Town defensive record+44
2.02 xG and 2.02 goals conceded per match.
- Crystal Palace home record+34
14.6 scored / 7.0 conceded across 11 home matches.
- Ipswich Town away record+74
9.7 scored / 21.5 conceded across 8 away matches.
- Squad availability-2
Crystal Palace: Óscar Mingueza (out), Chadi Riad (out), Ismaïla Sarr (out), Jean-Philippe Mateta (out), Honest Ahanor (out), Ben Chilwell (out) · Ipswich Town: Azor Matusiwa (out), Kasey McAteer (out), Jaden Philogene (out), Florentino (out), Jack Taylor (out)
- Squad depth+1
Crystal Palace: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/6DEF/8MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Ipswich Town: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/7DEF/5MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-18
Crystal Palace: 13 in (0 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Jesurun Rak-Sakyi to Kasımpaşa, Matheus França to Alverca, Quinten Timber from Olympique Marseille · Ipswich Town: 7 in (0 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Zian Flemming from Burnley, Ali Al-Hamadi to Sheffield Wednesday, Ben Johnson to Stoke City
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Chris Kavanaghneutral
5.0 yellows and 0.19 reds per match across 16 tracked appointments.
- Crystal Palace last 4 played+14
W W L L — 2.25 scored / 1.96 conceded per match, 1.88 points per game (recency weighted).
- Ipswich Town last 12 played+27
L L W W L — 1.54 scored / 2.09 conceded per match, 1.36 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 49% · form 48% · goal model 53% · results history 61% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+23
Goal-expectancy model: Crystal Palace 1.86 xG, Ipswich Town 1.18 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1472 | 1419 |
| Record | 9W 8D 11L | 6W 2D 9L |
| Goals for / against | 34.272088857846995 / 38.55941024971289 | 21.486888383588035 / 32.28046619875136 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 46% | 63% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 11 matches, 14.552450457397589–6.983816958900385 | 8 matches, 9.654015394619393–21.46792724611891 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 71.9%50.8% / 24.5% / 24.7%
- T-3dcompleteness 79.4%51.1% / 24.5% / 24.4%
- T-24hcompleteness 79.4%51.1% / 24.5% / 24.4%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Óscar Mingueza Defenderout
- Chadi Riad Defenderout
- Ismaïla Sarr Attackerout
- Jean-Philippe Mateta Attackerout
- Honest Ahanor Defenderout
- Ben Chilwell Defenderout
- Azor Matusiwa Midfielderout
- Kasey McAteer Midfielderout
- Jaden Philogene Attackerout
- Florentino Midfielderout
- Jack Taylor Midfielderout
Availability impact: 8.8% home attack, 7.8% away attack.