Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen
Thursday 17 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Juventus Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Juventus attacking output+11
1.50 xG and 1.50 goals per match over the last 20.
- NEC Nijmegen defensive record+2
1.30 xG and 1.30 goals conceded per match.
- Juventus home record+70
20.0 scored / 4.7 conceded across 11 home matches.
- NEC Nijmegen away record-9
10.4 scored / 8.9 conceded across 8 away matches.
- Squad availability+7
Juventus: Pape Matar Sarr (out), Weston McKennie (out), Kenan Yıldız (out), Juan Cabal (out), Andrea Cambiaso (out), Federico Gatti (out), Jeff Ekhator (out) · NEC Nijmegen: Yassin Moslih (out), Emre Mor (out), Deveron Fonville (out), Philippe Sandler (out), Bryan Linssen (out), Thomas Ouwejan (out), Koki Ogawa (out), Darko Nejasmic (out), Ahmetcan Kaplan (out), Dennis Geiger (out)
- Squad depth+1
Juventus: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/6DEF/5MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · NEC Nijmegen: 34 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/7DEF/8MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+19
Juventus: 7 in (0 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Jonathan David to Atlético de Madrid, Arthur Melo to Santos, Fabio Miretti to Beşiktaş · NEC Nijmegen: 11 in (2 on loan), 22 out including 0 regulars — Ayodele Thomas from RB Leipzig, Thomas Ouwejan to Machida Zelvia, Brayann Pereira to West Bromwich Albion
- Juventus last 6 played+54
D W W W W — 1.43 scored / 0.35 conceded per match, 2.39 points per game (recency weighted).
- NEC Nijmegen last 10 played+15
D L L W W — 1.42 scored / 1.72 conceded per match, 1.10 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 60% · form 63% · goal model 59% · results history 76% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+31
Goal-expectancy model: Juventus 1.82 xG, NEC Nijmegen 0.89 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Juventus | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1670 | 1526 |
| Record | 11W 8D 2L | 4W 8D 2L |
| Goals for / against | 30.052647520862642 / 9.333861228519833 | 21.086043200305973 / 18.20226047143632 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 54% | 61% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 11 matches, 19.977185207159206–4.686954162984318 | 8 matches, 10.36834901905316–8.865276214463792 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 76.3%59.5% / 23.0% / 17.5%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Pape Matar Sarr Midfielderout
- Weston McKennie Midfielderout
- Kenan Yıldız Attackerout
- Juan Cabal Defenderout
- Andrea Cambiaso Defenderout
- Federico Gatti Defenderout
- Jeff Ekhator Attackerout
- Yassin Moslih Defenderout
- Emre Mor Attackerout
- Deveron Fonville Defenderout
- Philippe Sandler Defenderout
- Bryan Linssen Attackerout
- Thomas Ouwejan Defenderout
- Koki Ogawa Attackerout
- Darko Nejasmic Midfielderout
- Ahmetcan Kaplan Defenderout
- Dennis Geiger Midfielderout
Availability impact: 10.4% home attack, 14.5% away attack.