Sparta Rotterdam vs SC Heerenveen
Saturday 19 Sep, 16:45 UTC · Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Sparta Rotterdam attacking output+14
1.47 xG and 1.47 goals per match over the last 14.
- SC Heerenveen defensive record+24
1.57 xG and 1.57 goals conceded per match.
- Sparta Rotterdam home record+7
11.5 scored / 10.6 conceded across 7 home matches.
- SC Heerenveen away record+28
8.5 scored / 11.9 conceded across 6 away matches.
- Squad availability+2
Sparta Rotterdam: Cedric Hatenboer (out), Robin van Cruijsen (out), Max de Ligt (out) · SC Heerenveen: Mees Hilgers (out), Mats Egbring (out), Oliver Braude (out), Marcus Linday (out)
- Squad depth-1
Sparta Rotterdam: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/8DEF/5MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · SC Heerenveen: 25 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/5DEF/4MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-39
Sparta Rotterdam: 13 in (0 on loan), 20 out including 0 regulars — Isaac Babadi from PSV, Ayoni Santos to PSV, Michael Brouwer from FC Utrecht · SC Heerenveen: 3 in (0 on loan), 4 out including 0 regulars — Marko Farji from Venezia, Mees Hilgers from FC Twente, Nikolai Hopland to Randers FC
- Sparta Rotterdam last 4 played+11
D W L W — 2.11 scored / 1.88 conceded per match, 1.65 points per game (recency weighted).
- SC Heerenveen last 5 played-7
L D W W W — 2.22 scored / 2.09 conceded per match, 1.05 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 34% · form 31% · goal model 40% · results history 58% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+3
Goal-expectancy model: Sparta Rotterdam 1.79 xG, SC Heerenveen 1.71 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1510 | 1575 |
| Record | 6W 3D 5L | 8W 4D 4L |
| Goals for / against | 20.59003812080236 / 23.12592197879712 | 27.870963799027475 / 23.623270815943687 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 49% | 49% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 7 matches, 11.492191681264048–10.581257841696168 | 6 matches, 8.477444827147304–11.854894334444577 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%40.3% / 25.8% / 33.9%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Cedric Hatenboer Midfielderout
- Robin van Cruijsen Midfielderout
- Max de Ligt Defenderout
- Mees Hilgers Defenderout
- Mats Egbring Defenderout
- Oliver Braude Defenderout
- Marcus Linday Midfielderout
Availability impact: 4.5% home attack, 5.8% away attack.