Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
Saturday 19 Sep, 12:00 UTC · Estadio El Sadar
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Osasuna attacking output+5
1.29 xG and 1.29 goals per match over the last 19.
- Rayo Vallecano defensive record+42
1.51 xG and 1.51 goals conceded per match.
- Osasuna home record+44
17.0 scored / 8.3 conceded across 10 home matches.
- Rayo Vallecano away record+93
5.6 scored / 24.1 conceded across 10 away matches.
- Squad availability+10
Rayo Vallecano: Adrià Pedrosa (out), Augusto Batalla (out), Marash Kumbulla (out), Raúl de Tomás (out)
- Squad depth-0
Osasuna: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Rayo Vallecano: 33 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/6MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+14
Osasuna: 4 in (1 on loan), 6 out including 0 regulars — Romain Del Castillo from Brest, Iker Benito to Querétaro, Diego Rico from Getafe · Rayo Vallecano: 7 in (1 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Rayane Belaid from Atlético Madrid II, Miguel Ángel Morro to TBC, Etienne Eto'o to Racing Ferrol
- Osasuna last 4 played-14
L W W D — 1.26 scored / 1.55 conceded per match, 1.73 points per game (recency weighted).
- Rayo Vallecano last 4 played+32
W L W W — 2.50 scored / 3.15 conceded per match, 1.76 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 53% · form 56% · goal model 61% · results history 46% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+37
Goal-expectancy model: Osasuna 2.11 xG, Rayo Vallecano 1.00 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1541 | 1456 |
| Record | 8W 6D 5L | 8W 4D 11L |
| Goals for / against | 24.598245737499344 / 21.3864451674263 | 25.954605205276962 / 34.61579345483055 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 46% | 55% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 10 matches, 17.022919752208587–8.251535784928503 | 10 matches, 5.616481234985232–24.13255459645823 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.8%52.6% / 24.6% / 22.7%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
No absentees reported.
- Adrià Pedrosa Defenderout
- Augusto Batalla Goalkeeperout
- Marash Kumbulla Defenderout
- Raúl de Tomás Attackerout
Availability impact: 0.0% home attack, 6.1% away attack.