Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa
Saturday 19 Sep, 11:30 UTC · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Tottenham Hotspur attacking output-11
1.22 xG and 1.22 goals per match over the last 24.
- Aston Villa defensive record-9
0.99 xG and 0.99 goals conceded per match.
- Tottenham Hotspur home record-9
16.0 scored / 18.3 conceded across 12 home matches.
- Aston Villa away record-15
22.3 scored / 17.4 conceded across 16 away matches.
- Squad availability+2
Tottenham Hotspur: Mykhaylo Mudryk (out), Wilson Odobert (out), Xavi Simons (out), James Maddison (out) · Aston Villa: Leon Bailey (out), João Gomes (out), Amadou Onana (out), Johan Manzambi (out), Brian Madjo (out)
- Squad depth-1
Tottenham Hotspur: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/10DEF/6MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Aston Villa: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-2
Tottenham Hotspur: 15 in (3 on loan), 17 out including 0 regulars — Pape Matar Sarr to Juventus, Tosin Adarabioyo from Chelsea, Kota Takai to Sint-Truiden · Aston Villa: 16 in (0 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Leon Bailey to Olympiacos F.C., Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton, Emiliano Martínez to Chelsea
- Tottenham Hotspur last 2 played-49
D L — 0.00 scored / 0.98 conceded per match, 0.51 points per game (recency weighted).
- Aston Villa last 5 played+40
W D L L W — 0.93 scored / 1.73 conceded per match, 1.17 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 21% · form 17% · goal model 28% · results history 29% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-12
Goal-expectancy model: Tottenham Hotspur 1.22 xG, Aston Villa 1.58 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Tottenham Hotspur | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1459 | 1682 |
| Record | 7W 7D 10L | 20W 4D 6L |
| Goals for / against | 29.31933993884004 / 34.09080549914473 | 55.261833359889884 / 28.688051443314077 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 48% | 51% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 12 matches, 16.037446099168434–18.30763811420962 | 16 matches, 22.281200949491467–17.358963096158604 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%27.0% / 26.1% / 47.0%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Mykhaylo Mudryk Attackerout
- Wilson Odobert Attackerout
- Xavi Simons Midfielderout
- James Maddison Midfielderout
- Leon Bailey Attackerout
- João Gomes Midfielderout
- Amadou Onana Midfielderout
- Johan Manzambi Midfielderout
- Brian Madjo Attackerout
Availability impact: 6.5% home attack, 7.9% away attack.