Sevilla vs FC Barcelona
Saturday 19 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Sevilla attacking output-21
0.85 xG and 0.85 goals per match over the last 18.
- FC Barcelona defensive record-22
0.99 xG and 0.99 goals conceded per match.
- Sevilla home record-29
8.4 scored / 13.1 conceded across 8 home matches.
- FC Barcelona away record-44
24.1 scored / 13.6 conceded across 12 away matches.
- Squad availability-2
Sevilla: Arouna Sangante (out), Isaac Romero (out), Rubén Vargas (out) · FC Barcelona: Frenkie de Jong (out), Roony Bardghji (out)
- Squad depth-0
Sevilla: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 2GK/8DEF/6MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · FC Barcelona: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/9DEF/8MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-9
Sevilla: 13 in (3 on loan), 18 out including 0 regulars — Lucas Stassin from Saint-Étienne, Youssouf Fofana from AC Milan, Félix Correia from LOSC Lille · FC Barcelona: 11 in (1 on loan), 14 out including 0 regulars — Álvaro Cortés to Antwerp, Marc Casadó to Deportivo A Coruña, Guille Fernández to Mallorca
- Sevilla last 2 played-49
D L — 1.00 scored / 1.98 conceded per match, 0.51 points per game (recency weighted).
- FC Barcelona last 6 played-100
W W W W W — 4.47 scored / 0.62 conceded per match, 3.00 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 13% · form 9% · goal model 11% · results history 1% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-56
Goal-expectancy model: Sevilla 0.99 xG, FC Barcelona 2.68 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Sevilla | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1366 | 1710 |
| Record | 4W 2D 12L | 19W 1D 5L |
| Goals for / against | 15.262795374401925 / 28.02423086130725 | 49.71871825800416 / 24.790240959938405 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 52% | 67% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 8 matches, 8.409968246677272–13.053739901019428 | 12 matches, 24.116534338314196–13.637891403671228 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 72.5%11.4% / 19.0% / 69.6%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Arouna Sangante Defenderout
- Isaac Romero Attackerout
- Rubén Vargas Attackerout
- Frenkie de Jong Midfielderout
- Roony Bardghji Attackerout
Availability impact: 4.8% home attack, 3.3% away attack.